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621
FXUS61 KBGM 041353
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
953 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures today under mostly sunny skies;
can`t rule out an isolated afternoon shower or storm. More
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms arrive Wednesday
afternoon through Thursday. A slow moving upper level low pressure
system brings cooler temperatures and numerous showers to the region
starting Friday, and continuing through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
650 AM Update

Only minor adjustments to reduce cloud cover today and lower
temperatures initially early this morning. It`s starting off
cooler, in the 50s to low 60s out there. After the valley fog
burns off it looks to be mostly sunny much of the day...eventually
becoming partly sunny late this afternoon. Otherwise, the forecast
remains well on track at this time.

345 AM Update

Partly cloudy with some patchy fog early this morning. For the rest
of today, there will be plenty of sunshine filtered through some
thin, high level cirrus clouds. Some scattered cumulus clouds will
develop as forecast soundings from the 00z NAM show a thin layer of
moisture around the 850mb level. NAM soundings do show plenty of
MLCAPE upwards of 500-1000 J/kg or more at times. However, the
soundings also show plenty of very dry air above 850mb, through the
equilibrium levels. This will likely make it very hard for any
organized convection to take hold. With that said, the CAMs do show
the potential for a few, isolated showers or t`storms to pop up late
this afternoon or evening...highest probabilities for this (15-20%)
will be over the Catskills and Oneida county region. Deep layer
shear is very weak today (< 20 kts) so anything that does form will
be short lived and pulse type. It will be well above average today, with
highs reaching well into the 80s for most locations. Humidity levels
will be rather low, so it will not feel overly humid out there.

Quiet, partly cloudy and warm weather continues tonight. Can`t rule
out some patchy valley fog once again. Lows only dip down into the
upper 50s to mid-60s around the region, this is 5 to 10 degrees
above the average low for early June.

Wednesday will feature more active weather for our forecast area. It
looks to start off mainly quiet, under partly sunny skies in the
morning. Then, southwesterly flow increases as a shortwave trough
approaches from the Ohio Valley/Western PA area in the afternoon and
evening. This will bring increasing clouds, and chances for showers
and t`storms. Model guidance is varying on the amount of instability
that will be present over the area...depending on how warm surface
temperatures can get. It seems plausible that pockets of 500-1250
J/Kg MLCAPE could form at times through the afternoon and early
evening hours. Shear is still looking rather weak, generally under
20 kts and some guidance such as the 00z GFS keeps 500mb ridging
overhead into the afternoon hours. This would help to limit
convective activity into at least the early afternoon hours, before
some showers and storms move in late in the day from the west.
Overall, followed the blended NBM guidance closely now for the
official forecast. This gave 30-50% PoPs for scattered showers and
storms arrive late in the day. Otherwise, it will be partly sunny,
warm and more humid with highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s. WPC does
have most of our area outlined in a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall with any of the late day or evening thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Forecast...

The nice spell of dry, warm weather will end Wednesday night as
the ridge that has been overhead for the past several days will
slide eastward and an upper level trough will dig into the
region from the Great Lakes.

Wednesday night will be warm and wet as southerly flow will pump
warm, humid air into the region from the SE US. Model soundings
show long, skinny CAPE profiles with PWATS hovering between 1.5
and 1.75in across the region. The initial shortwave associated
with the upper level trough looks to be pretty progressive, and
combined with the dry spell we have had over the past week,
flooding risks should be limited to areas that may see
successive heavy showers over a few hours and/or areas that are
prone to flooding. Given the high PWATs and chance for heavy,
efficient convective rainfall, WPC has our area in a Marginal
risk (5% chance of seeing flash flooding). A widespread 0.5 to
1.0 in of rain is expected through the period, with higher
amounts possible in heavy downpours. Rain and isolated
thunderstorm chances last through Thursday afternoon, when a
cold front will push through the region and bring in cooler,
drier air. Some lingering showers will remain into the overnight
hours, but most should stay dry.

Temps Wed night will be warm thanks to strong WAA from southerly
flow, only falling into the the low to mid 60s. Thursday will be
cooler than Wed with rain and the cold front moving through,
with highs reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. Depending on the
timing of the cold front, highs could differ by a couple of
degrees higher or lower. Thursday night will be about 10 degrees
cooler than Wed night, with lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
315 AM Forecast...

The aforementioned upper level trough will become quasi-
stationary over the region through the weekend, allowing diurnal
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop each day of
the period. Temps will be cooler under the trough, with highs in
the 60s most days, with low 70s possible in warmer valleys
Friday and Monday. The latest model guidance shows more
agreement on the movement and positioning of the trough over the
area through the weekend, with a pattern change not really in
the cards until late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
650 AM Update

Fog is impacting ELM early this morning, and surrounding valley
locations. This fog will lift, scatter and burn off quickly
between 12-13z this morning.

VFR conditions are expected for the entire after 12-13Z with
isolated showers in the afternoon and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Not nearly enough coverage to put in at any taf sites at this
time. Conditions remain mainly clear across the area later this
evening, with a few clouds moving in from the southeast late
tonight.

Winds are expected to be light out of the south-
southwest under 10 kts.


Outlook...

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM