-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
750
FXUS61 KBGM 040548
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
148 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures through the first half of the week with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms possible. Chances for more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms increase in the latter half
of the week, as a slow moving system passes through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 PM Update...

Forecast remains on track. Skies are mainly clear over the
region with just patches of mid/high level clouds. Valley fog is
just starting to form now as temperatures are falling to the dew
points now at several observation sites. Only minor tweaks to
sky, pop, weather and temperatures heading into the day today.
Can`t rule out an isolated shower or t`storm over the higher
elevations of the Catskills, and Susquehanna region. Otherwise,
it will be mostly sunny and warm, with highs in the mid to upper
80s, except some low 80s for the higher elevations. Dew points
will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, giving afternoon RH values
between 35-50%, so it will not feel overly humid out there.

1000 PM Update...

Minor adjustments made at this time. Increased cloud cover
prior to daybreak tomorrow with high clouds expected to move in
ahead of a weak shortwave. The rest of the forecast remains on
track.

650 PM Update...

Dried out much of the area for the rest of this evening with
little in the way of pop up showers developing late this
afternoon and evening and skies gradually clearing. The chance
for thunder seems very low tomorrow, so did remove any mention
of it prior to 18Z and limited it to a slight chance for the
rest of the afternoon.

125 PM Update...

Surface high pressure is over the area and although it is
fairly stable, a weak shortwave passes this afternoon and will
kick off a few isolated showers. Tonight, with the loss of
heating after sunset, any showers will quickly dissipate. There
may be some patchy fog early Tuesday morning, however this will
be dependent on cloud cover.

Weak waves within the ridge aloft will kick off more showers and
possibly an isolated thunderstorm Tuesday afternoon. MLCAPE is
modeled to be around 500 J/kg, however a strong cap at 700 mb
will be in place on Tuesday, which will limit the coverage of
showers. Temperatures will be warm and some spots will hit the
mid 80s. Tomorrow night, high pressure remains in control and
temperatures will remain warm overnight with lows only in the
low 60s to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

An approaching cold front from an upper-level low in Canada will
move into Central NY and NE PA Wednesday evening into Thursday,
bringing rain showers and cooling things down from the high-70s
to mid-80s Wednesday to the mid- to high-70s on Thursday. The
upper-level low will move southeastward into the region
Thursday, bringing more rain and chances for afternoon
thunderstorms. The Weather Prediction Center has our area in a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding (at least 5% risk of flash
flooding), mainly for Wednesday night through Thursday night as
the front moves through first Wednesday night, and as the upper-
level low swings down into our area Thursday evening. Across
Wednesday night through Thursday night, we`re expecting total
rainfall amounts to be a quarter to a half inch of rainfall
across Central NY and NE PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
215 PM Update...

The aforementioned upper-level low will become quasi-stationary
over our area heading into the weekend. Chances for rain showers
will last through the long-term, as well as chances for
thunderstorms increasing into the afternoon timeframe pretty
much every day in the long-term. Long-term guidance really
starts to differ over the weekend, where the center of the
upper-level low is different in each model, but the similar
theme of continuous chances for rain showers remains the same
across the entire weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
145 AM Update

VFR conditions will persist through most of this taf period.
There is a chance for some patchy light fog or mist to develop
early this morning, however sct to bkn high clouds have been
detrimental to this fog formation. ELM has the highest
probabilities for restrictions; occasional IFR/ALT Minimums
vsbys possible with valley fog here from 08-11z this morning.
Confidence remains low to moderate on just how widespread and
thick this fog may become early this morning.

VFR conditions are expected for the entire after 12Z with
isolated showers in the afternoon and perhaps a thunderstorm.
Not nearly enough coverage to put in at any taf sites at this
time. Winds are expected to be light out of the south-
southwest under 10 kts.


Outlook...

late tonight...Mainly VFR; marine layer of lower clouds moves
into the Poconos; but looks to stay away from our taf sites.

Wednesday...Low chance of showers/storms and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...DK/MPK/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/MJM