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345
FXUS63 KBIS 160936
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
436 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this morning
  across central and eastern portions. Isolated thunderstorms
  may return across south central and southeastern portions
  tonight. The overall threat for severe weather today through
  tonight is isolated.

- Breezy to windy westerly winds expected today.

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
  much of North Dakota, except the northwest, Monday through
  Monday night.

- Below normal temperatures expected through at least mid week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 435 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Cold front continues to progress across central and eastern
portion of the state this morning. Along it will be showers and
thunderstorms. The threat for severe weather this morning is
overall low. CAPE is still marginal yet fairly capped and shear
values are starting to come down. That being said perhaps an
isolated storm near severe criteria is possible as this front
moves through. Behind the front will be strong westerly winds.
The highest confidence for these winds still remains in the
northwest, although shortly before this publish some of these
stronger winds have been reported already in western and some
central portions after passage of the front. There could be some
lulls in these winds between front passage and them increasing
this afternoon. Still decide to go ahead and issued a Wind
Advisory for much of the CWA through today. Temperatures today
will cool behind this front and be generally in the mid 60s
northwest to near 80 southeast. Front stalls across the south
tonight and could be the focus for new thunderstorm development.
Coverage looks to be isolated to scattered. There remains a
Marginal Risk across some south central and southeastern
counties for this new development tonight. Shear will remain
high, although instability looks low. Thus an isolated severe
storm is possible. This stalled front then looks to serve as a
boundary for more showers and thunderstorms Monday through
MOnday night. A developing surface low in Colorado will also
extend an inverted trough across the state, helping create
unsettled conditions. The result will be more showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA. SPC has maintained a Marginal and
Slight Risk across much of the area, except the northwest. There
is limited surface and mix layer CAPE with this setup, although
abundant MUCAPE implying elevated storms will be favored. These
storms will still have abundant shear to work with. Thus started
the main hazards as golf ball and 70 mph for Monday through
Monday night. Otherwise look for further cooling of temperatures
in the 60s and 70s on Monday. Winds will become easterly, and
may be breezy in the south. Showers and thunderstorms will be
found through Monday night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Another cold front then looks to linger showers and
thunderstorms for Tuesday. Limited instability will limit the
severe weather potential for Tuesday. Temperatures even further
cool with perhaps highs in the upper 50s northwest to lower 70s
southeast. Winds could shift back to the northwest on Tuesday
behind this front and again be breezy. Shower activity then
diminishes Tuesday night with skies at least partially
clearing. This secondary front could provide for some quite cool
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. NBM
currently puts lows mainly in the 40s. ECMWF EFI Min T values
are still around -0.8 indicating an oddly cool night is
possible. NBM25th percentile temps are in the upper 30s for some
western areas and may require monitoring going forward.

The forecast pattern for mid to late week remains similar with
generally zonal flow. Perhaps this can gradually warmup
temperatures throughout the week, yet near to below normal temps
are currently forecast. Any little wave in this zonal flow could
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, thus the NBM has
PoPs almost each day with a lull on Wednesday. Some low to
modest instability may be found towards the end of the week.
This combined with modest to high shear may return at least
isolated chances for severe weather. Confidence is low at this
point and should be monitored going forward.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

A line of strong to severe storms will continue to push
eastward across the state. MVFR conditions could briefly be
found along this line. In addition strong winds with gusts over
50 knots could be found along and behind this line. VFR
conditions should return for Sunday, although breezy to windy
westerly winds may be found through the day. These winds then
diminish Sunday evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>034-040>044.
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&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin