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953
FXUS63 KBIS 120549
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs on Wednesday will be the warmest of the week for most of
  central North Dakota, including the James River Valley, with
  temperatures will ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s.
  Some locations in the southern James River Valley of ND could
  reach the low 90s.

- Higher chances for more widespread precipitation, along with
  the potential for severe weather, is forecast Friday night
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A few mid and high clouds are drifting across the forecast area
late this evening, with otherwise quiet conditions. Isolated
showers have exited the Turtle Mountains area, while upstream in
southeast Montana there are a few weak thunderstorms ongoing.
Additionally, a broader area of convection is ongoing in
southern Saskatchewan, associated with a surface low. Not
expecting much of this activity to be persistent, but still
carrying low grade POPs in the southwest through the overnight
hours. No changes needed with this update.

UPDATE
Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Made some minor sky cover edits to account for some clouds
lingering longer across the southwest and central than expected.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The forecast remains on track at this time. Diurnal clouds have
begun to decrease, while the winds turning anti-cyclonically
around a high pressure center in South Dakota have generally begun
to weaken.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Other than a little diurnal cu that has developed in the James
River Valley up through the north central and in the west,
sunny skies are present across the area. Breezy winds in most of
the area will quickly diminish this evening as the sun sets. A
few showers are possible tonight through early Wednesday
morning, mainly in the southwest, as a weak surface low
meanders through South Dakota and WAA is present aloft. Opted
to refrain from adding thunder mentions due to limited
instability and time of day, although if there was a rumble or
two, it wouldn`t be totally surprising either. A few CAMs do
suggest the potential for showers over the north tonight and in
the south central Wednesday morning. Model forecast soundings
look pretty dry, however, therefore any development in the north
may wind up being only virga or sprinkles.

With northwesterly flow aloft being prevalent through the
remainder of the workweek, additional weak embedded impulses are
possible at times through the latter half of the workweek. As
of right now, any of these weak impulses look very limited in
areal coverage and are unlikely to produce a widespread wetting
rain (at least a tenth of an inch). Though a wetting rain is
always possible over a limited area under any thunderstorms
that may develop.

Towards the weekend is when things get more interesting as a
North Pacific low drives into the Pacific Northwest. This will
result in southwesterly flow aloft for the region. At the
surface, models are also pretty consistent that by the middle of
the weekend, surface high pressure will center over the Great
Lakes Region and low pressure will be off to the west. This will
advect Gulf Moisture into the area starting with western ND on
Friday. Currently models are in good agreement that mixed layer
dewpoints will be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees Saturday
evening across the entire region. Depending on exactly when any
forcing comes through the area and how strong it is, this could
lead to a severe weather threat Friday afternoon/evening
primarily in the west. And another threat Saturday across the
entire area. These potential severe threats are also outlined by
CSU Machine Learning.

High temperatures on Wednesday are still expected to be the
warmest of the week for much of central ND, with some 90 degree
readings possible in the southern James River Valley of ND.
This is a continued trend downward for locations further to the
northwest due to a cold frontal boundary entering northwestern
North Dakota around sunrise and progressing eastward rapidly
through the day. Beyond Wednesday, temperatures cool a bit
overall and look seasonable through the weekend with perhaps
seasonably cool temperatures to start next week. This translates
to highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s through the weekend, with
highs in the upper 60s to low 70s to start next week. That
said, while NBM ensemble temperature spreads are relatively
narrow through Friday night, spreads widen greatly Saturday
through the next workweek. Either way, a cooling trend of some
sort is favored by that point.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the TAF
period. A few showers are possible in the southwest overnight,
but not included at KDIK with this update. Main impact on
Wednesday will be breezy west to northwest winds, with the
strongest winds in northwest North Dakota where we could see
occasional gusts to 35 mph. Showers and thunderstorms may
develop across the east central early Wednesday afternoon, but
confidence is too low to place it at any given TAF site at this
time.
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&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jones
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Jones