Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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516 FXUS63 KBIS 181432 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 932 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms today. - Below normal temperatures today and tonight, with frost possible tonight. Some temperatures below freezing can not be be ruled out in southwest North Dakota. Seasonably cool temperatures continue through Saturday. - Mostly dry Wednesday, then chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday through Saturday. && .UPDATE...
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Issued at 926 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Random areas of fog have developed with visibilities jumping all around, so we just covered the whole area with a mention of patchy fog through the late morning. With the Minot radar down, it has been a challenge to have a good handle on the rain falling in the northern half of the state. PoPs have been continuously updated. UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Scattered showers lingering over the James River Valley with Light rain over the far west and north central. Overall though, precipitation has diminished substantially over the past few hours. The threat for thunder also looks to have diminished as well. Do expect shower activity to increase today over western and into central ND with the approach of the upper low over eastern Montana. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.
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&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Strong convection has exited the southern James River Valley and the thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. A large area of stratiform rain with some embedded thunder, extends west into south central ND, west of the Missouri River, with some strong northeast winds. This precipitation is expected to exit the area this morning. However, with upper level low pressure situated over eastern Montana shower activity will linger through the day. High pressure will build over the area tonight bringing clearing skies. By 12 UTC Wednesday, surface high pressure is situated over the western Dakotas. Currently the NBM is depicting low temperatures in the mid 30s to upper across a good portion of western North Dakota, most notably over southwest ND. MOS based temperatures support this with mid 30s indicated at both Dickinson and Hettinger. The NAEFS SA table indicates a high probability of very dry air over the Mondak region Wednesday morning. The ECMWF SA page indicates a high probability of cold temperatures over all of western ND Wednesday morning. The NBM is currently depicting a rather large area of patchy frost early Wednesday morning over the southwest, with patchy frost also extending into portions of the northwest and south central, west of the River. There is some uncertainty as to the potential for low level moisture and possible fog/stratus Wednesday morning so will let the day shift make the call, but would expect a Frost Advisory, with the potential of some freezing temperatures over or normally cool areas south and west of the Missouri river and Lake Sakakawea, and possibly into the northwest as well. Besides the cold temperatures Wednesday morning, this mid-week period should be pretty quiet with, maybe a hit or miss shower, but overall mostly dry conditions Wednesday morning through the daytime Thursday. Another upper level shortwave will track from the West Coast, across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains region late in the work week and into the weekend. This will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected today across western and central North Dakota. Isolated shower activity this morning will increase later this morning and this afternoon especially west and north central. Thunder can`t be completely ruled out, but uncertainty is high enough that we will not include it in any TAF today. MVFR-IFR conditions should begin to improve to VFR this afternoon into this evening but KBIS and especially KJMS could see MVFR cigs lingering beyond 06Z. Breezy northerly winds this morning are expected to gradually diminish this afternoon and shift more westerly. Winds should become light by this evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...TWH