-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
470
FXUS63 KBIS 150322
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1022 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Changed Discussion --
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night,
  covering most of western and central North Dakota.

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe
  thunderstorms Sunday across far southeastern portions of the
  state.

- High temperatures are forecast to peak in the 80s on Saturday
  (potentially reaching the 90s in the southwest), with a
  gradual cooling trend through the first few days of next week.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected next week,
  with the best chances Monday night with precipitation chances
  ranging from 60 to 80 percent across the state.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.UPDATE
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

No major changes were needed for the late evening update. We did
greatly reduce precipitation chances across much of the west and
central over the next few hours. Radar trends and most of the
CAMs suggest we will see a break in activity before the next
round of at least isolated showers and storms potentially moves
in late tonight or Saturday morning. We will continue to see
showers with a few embedded storms over our east for the next
few hours, generally along and east of a line from the northwest
corner of Wells county, to the South Dakota border in south
central McIntosh county.

UPDATE
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms continue early this evening generally
along a line from around Kenmare, southeast through Minot, and
then to the north of Jamestown. These will continue to move east
through the night. Thus far, the strongest storms were seen
over the northwest where the shear has been the most
substantial. The main limiting factor here has been instability
with MUCAPE values generally in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and
MLCAPE values much less. Instability is stronger over the
southwest but so is the convective inhibition. Some cumulus has
been a bit agitated south of Baker, MT but this activity
appears to be struggling with inhibition. It seems unlikely that
any storms of significance will develop here at this point. We
could still see some more isolated to scattered showers and
storms later and into the overnight as there is still some
activity over south central and southeast Montana, but the
severe weather threat tonight should remain rather low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main forecast challenge is the potential for severe weather
this afternoon through this weekend.

Presently, a transitory ridge is passing through the central
Dakotas with a weak trailing shortwave analyzed over eastern
Montana towards western South Dakota. This shortwave and
associated WAA will help generate showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon possibly lingering into the overnight hours.
Instability will become moderate in the west with CAPE values
around 1000 to 2000 J/kg, especially in the southwest, as Gulf
moisture advects into the area. Shear is on the lower end at
around 30 to 40 kts, but it`s enough for a few severe
thunderstorms to develop. One of the biggest limitations to
potential severe weather is that capping is quite strong in the
west. While it is progged to deteriorate, there is some question
as to whether it will break in time or not. As a result, there
is a window for severe weather mainly in the west this afternoon
and early evening, but it`s also possible storms will stay sub-
severe. The primary threats are hail up to the size of ping pong
balls and 60 mph wind gusts.

A bigger severe weather threat is possible on Saturday. Unlike today
where Gulf moisture is primarily advecting into western ND, Gulf
moisture will be present over most of the state. This will result in
mixed layer dewpoints approaching 60 degrees, thus creating ample
instability over much of the area. In the late afternoon, wind
shear looks marginal (though enough) along and south of I94,
while areas further north of I94 and west of Highway 281 are
progged to have strong shear in excess of 50 kts of 0 to 6 km
bulk shear. Moderate instability and strong shear values migrate
eastward through Saturday night. The primary forcing mechanism
looks to be a moderate shortwave along with associated surface
cold frontal boundary, which looks to begin sliding through the
area in the late afternoon. This will result in severe weather
potential in the later afternoon, through the evening, and
potentially into the early overnight hours.

In regard to potential hazards for Saturday, shear vectors are
generally parallel or between parallel and perpendicular. Overall,
this favors a more clustered event that may become linear. However,
a few discrete supercells are possible earlier on. With any discrete
supercells, hail of two inches or greater is possible. There
remains a very conditional brief tornado threat window should
any discrete cells develop. Otherwise, in a more disorganized
cluster, threats include wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to
ping pong ball size. Any hail threat will diminish as storms
become more linear leaving a primary threat of wind gusts up to
70 mph. Isolated gusts up to 80 mph are not out of the question.

Beyond Saturday, breezy to windy conditions are possible in the
north and west, and especially the northwest itself, as the
pressure gradient tightens between low pressure to the north
and high pressure to the southwest. One point to this is that
with strong pressure rises and moderate CAA progged in
deterministic models at this time; winds may wind up being
stronger than presently forecast. Otherwise, expect periodic
showers and thunderstorms with severe weather not out of the
question Sunday in the far southeast CWA, and Monday in the
eastern CWA.

The highest confidence for widespread precipitation next week is
Monday through Tuesday afternoon, and especially Monday night,
as deep low pressure originating in Wyoming moves through the
central/northern Plains. As a result, the entire forecast area
is already forecast for a 60 to 80 percent chance of seeing
showers and thunderstorms. This low pressure will also bring a
return of cooler temperatures. Though exact values will be
ironed out in the future, the majority of the forecast area is
favored to see highs return to the 60s Monday through Wednesday.
A gradual warming trend is then favored for the latter half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Scattered thunderstorms continue early this evening generally
along a line from around Kenmare, southeast through Minot, and
then to the north of Jamestown. These storms will continue to
move east through the night. The terminals most likely to see a
storm in the vicinity tonight will be KJMS and KMOT. More
isolated showers and storms may develop later tonight but quite
a bit of uncertainty remains about exactly where. Another round
of showers and storms is expected to develop across the far
west towards the very end of the period. KXWA and KDIK will be
the most likely sites to see a storm in their vicinity near the
end of the period. Storms late tomorrow afternoon could pose a
severe risk. The strongest storms may produce hail up to two
inches in diameter and damaging winds up to 70 mph.
Additionally, we may see some MVFR ceilings move into the south
central and southeast Saturday morning, most likely impacting
KBIS and KJMS. Brief IFR conditions and erratic winds will be
possible under or in the vicinity of any stronger storm that
moves overhead.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...ZH