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963
FXUS64 KBMX 230621
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
121 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Monday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

Central Alabama will be switching from a northeast to a weak
northwest flow thanks to a trough amplifying over the Northeast
CONUS. A weak cold front will slide from Kentucky and Tennessee
this afternoon and into our area overnight into Monday morning. A
pre-frontal axis of PWATs near 2 inches will move in just ahead
of this. The model consensus develop isolated to scattered
convection just along the front, so increased PoPs across the
northern 2/3rds of the area. Not expected anything more a few
storms as mid-level lapse rates will be poor with weak shear and
limited forcing/convergence. As is typical this time of year,
there won`t be any cool air with the front but there will be a
pronounced moisture gradient, with the better moisture shifting to
the southern counties by Monday afternoon. With most of the
showers and storms south of the area, clouds will decrease and we
will warm up quickly behind the front. Dew points will mix out
some in the afternoon, but not quite as much as previous days
given the increased moisture, so heat indices may reach 105
degrees in spots, especially in the south and southwest.

16
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through next Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

The beginning of the work week continues to look hot as moisture
builds in the wake of the retreating upper level ridge. Will
likely need Heat Advisories for Tuesday, with heat indices in the
105 to 108F range across the south and west.

With a series of upper level impulses and possible MCS features,
continue to hoist increased rain chances on Wednesday and possibly
into Thursday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2024

Key messages:

- Hot conditions continue into early next week with heat indices
  at or above 105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.

- One or more complexes of showers and storms may provide some
  temporary respite from the heat Wednesday but also gusty winds.
  However, details remain uncertain this far out.

The moisture boundary will become oriented northwest to southeast
by Tuesday with diurnal convection possible along and southwest
of it under weak ridging/flow aloft, though there is some spread
in the placement of this boundary. Prior to convection,
temperatures will warm into the upper 90s. The placement of the
moisture boundary will determine where dew points mix out the
most, but with the hotter temperatures a heat advisory appears
likely for at minimum the southern and western counties. A
shortwave in northwest flow aloft will result in troughing
temporarily developing over the Southeast CONUS Wednesday and
Thursday. One or more MCSs could move through during this time
with increasing moisture. Wednesday will see the highest rain
chances of the period with potential for a brief respite from the
heat depending on the timing of the MCS(s). Nothing really jumps
out too much in the convective environment just yet, but will keep
an eye out for the potential for gusty winds with any cold pools.
It`s too far out for any details on these MCSs. Ridging builds
back into the area by the end of the week causing the heat to
return, though some troughing and associated rain chances may
linger near our southeast counties.

32/Davis
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024

VFR conditions for the next 18 to 21 hours, with increasing clouds
after 00z. A weak boundary will slide down into the northern sites
between 3 and 6z with isolated to scattered coverage. Added in
Prob30 at all sites, except MGM and TOI. May need to add in at MGM
withe the next set.

16
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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Dry conditions will continue through this afternoon. 20 foot
winds become westerly at 4 to 6 mph. Afternoon RH values should
range from 30 to 40 percent this afternoon. Overnight RH values
will be above 80 percent. Scattered rain chances return tonight
into Monday, with an increase in minimum RH values. Isolated to
scattered storms may be possible across the south and central on
Tuesday, with better chances on Wednesday and Thursday.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     97  72  97  71 /  10  30  10  10
Anniston    96  74  95  72 /  10  30  10  10
Birmingham  98  76  98  76 /  10  30  10  10
Tuscaloosa  98  75  97  75 /  10  30  20  10
Calera      98  76  98  75 /   0  30  20  10
Auburn      96  74  95  74 /   0  20  30  10
Montgomery  97  75  96  75 /   0  20  30  10
Troy        97  73  97  74 /  10  10  30  20
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&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...16