-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
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FXUS64 KBMX 211112
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
612 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

Easterly flow remains across the area. Today we will be in more of
a subsidence zone with the tropical moisture to our east and the
weak disturbance that passed this past afternoon to our west. Can
not totally rule out a shower or two in the far north or
southeast this afternoon, then chances remain at 10 percent or
less so will continue with a dry forecast this afternoon and
tonight. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.

On Saturday, we will see some increase in moisture across the
east. This should be enough to help trigger some showers/storms
during the peak heating of the day in the east/southeast, so went
with 20 to 30 PoPs in this area. The trend of the best moisture
remains to our east over Georgia and Florida. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 90s, so any storm that gets tall enough could
certainly be on the stronger side.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

Key message:

- Hot conditions continue into next week with heat indices near
  105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.

The center of the subtropical ridge will retrograde southwestward
towards the Southern High Plains on Sunday, while a couple
shortwaves move through the Great Lakes and New England. At the
surface, low pressure will move eastward across northern New
England with a trailing cold front over the Ohio Valley and a lee
trough east of the Appalachians. Central Alabama looks to remain
in a dry air mass Sunday between the pre-frontal moisture axis
over Kentucky and Tennesse and remnant tropical moisture over
southeast Georgia. Weak westerly low-level flow should be
favorable for high temperatures in the upper 90s but dew points
should mix enough to keep heat indices below 105. A couple showers
and storms developing ahead of the front along outflow boundaries
might reach the northern counties late Sunday night and Monday
morning but the front will be dissipating. Slightly higher rain
chances may exist across the southern counties Monday afternoon
along and south of the weak lee trough. The boundary moving
through may keep temperatures in the mid 90s vs the upper 90s, but
dew points will begin to creep up and heat indices may approach
105 in a few spots.

The remnant boundary/moisture gradient will remain over the area
Tuesday and may lift northeastward a bit. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible along and south of the boundary.
Temperatures should warm back into the upper 90s prior to
convection developing. Will have to watch dew point trends as this
appears to be the day with the best chance of needing a heat
advisory if dew points don`t mix out too much. Northwest flow
aloft continues Wednesday between ridging over the Four Corners
and weak troughing over the Southeast. A convectively enhanced
shortwave trough may move out of the Central Plains, with some
guidance indicating a potential MCS. Rain chances look highest on
Wednesday with hot and humid conditions ahead of any storms.
Showers and storms may continue into Thursday depending on the
timing of the shortwave with heat indices beginning to trend
downward slightly.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

VFR at most locations for the next 24 hours. Winds increase to 7
to 8 kts by 15 to 16z from the east. Winds decrease again after
sunset. Any middle layer clouds today will be around 6 to 8 kft
and generally in the few to sct coverage.

16
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through tonight as easterly
winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 4 to 8 mph are
expected today before becoming very light on Saturday. 20ft winds
becomes westerly Sunday, at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values
should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Sunday. A
slight increase in moisture could yield a few isolated showers and
storms Saturday afternoon, generally near and south of Interstate
85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     93  67  96  69 /  10   0  10   0
Anniston    93  68  96  72 /  10   0  10   0
Birmingham  95  71  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  94  70  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
Calera      95  70  97  73 /  10   0  10   0
Auburn      92  71  94  73 /  10   0  20   0
Montgomery  94  69  97  73 /  10   0  20   0
Troy        93  68  96  72 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...16