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FXUS64 KBMX 151115
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
615 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A ridge in place over Central Alabama will result in highs in the
mid to upper 90s across the area today. Highs have trended
downward a couple degrees with this latest update, with most areas
across Central Alabama remaining at 98F or below. CAMs have shown
the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon,
so have added slight chance PoPs in the east for the afternoon and
evening hours. Heat index numbers should remain largely in the
100-105F or below, so a Heat Advisory will not be issued. As the
ridge slides eastward Sunday, southeasterly flow will hold highs
mainly in the mid 90s. Shower and thunderstorm potential looks
comparatively more likely than today, so went with slight chance
PoPs across most of the area and chance PoPs south of I-85.

12

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday,
opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer
across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT
values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient
from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50
percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern
border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and
as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5
inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and
thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our
western counties.

A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will
persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain
expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could
begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight
increase in rain chances.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024

Some light mist has developed this morning, mostly impacting vis
at TOI and TCL. This should disperse by 13-14z, leaving mostly
clear skies. After 14z, VFR vis and cigs will persist until Sunday
morning, when vis may again approach MVFR. Winds will remain
light and variable.

12
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through Sunday morning, with the
exception of a couple showers or storms east of I-65 this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still looks
to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and variable
through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8 mph
through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to
drop into the 35-45 percent today and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  70  94  71 /  20  10  20  10
Anniston    96  72  93  72 /  20  20  20  10
Birmingham  96  73  95  74 /  10  10  20  10
Tuscaloosa  98  73  97  74 /  10  10  20  10
Calera      96  72  95  74 /  20  10  20  10
Auburn      94  73  93  74 /  20  20  20  10
Montgomery  98  72  96  74 /  20  10  20  20
Troy        97  70  94  72 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION...12