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120
FXUS64 KBMX 180856
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
356 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

All of Monday`s convection has moved to central Alabama`s west and
northwest, leaving dry weather for the rest of the short term
period. The combination of a big upper level ridge and surface
high pressure over the east coast will help to keep a flow of
drier air coming into Alabama from the east. All POPs through
Wednesday will remain below 10 percent, with temperatures right
around seasonal normals. Probably the best baseball weather you
can get around here this time of year.

/61/
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

A 500 mb ridge over the Mid-Atlantic region will begin migrating
southwestward on Thursday. Deep-layer easterlies south of this
ridge will provide a fetch of relatively dry air through Friday
with PWAT values in the 1-1.5 inch range. As the 500 mb ridge
moves over Deep South, the moderating effects of easterly flow
will wane as low- level flow weakens. Temperatures are expected
to upward from the 89-92 degree range on Thursday, to the mid 90s
for Friday through Sunday.

Meanwhile, enhanced moisture associated with a weakening tropical
wave may arrive in South Georgia and the Florida Panhandle and
possibly into Southeast Alabama. Any showers and storms on
Saturday should be isolated and confined to the southeastern part
of our area. Slightly greater coverage of diurnal convection may
occur on Sunday as southeasterly flow contributes to moisture
advection. Though there is disagreement on the mid-level pattern
on Monday, models are in general agreement on weak height falls
and moistening of the atmosphere across the Deep South. As a
result, showers and storms could become more numerous on Monday.


87/Grantham
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2024

VFR conditions across central Alabama terminals through the next
24 hours. Ongoing showers just north of ANB were moving
northwest, and should be a non-factor at ANB (or elsewhere, for
that matter). All other convection has ended across central
Alabama, and just mid to high level clouds are expected through
the overnight hours. Computer models continue to strongly indicate
that easterly flow will bring in more stable air, and keep
afternoon convection to the west of central Alabama terminals
through the remainder of the period. Winds will pick up around
15Z, and become a bit gusty at times.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

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Rain-free conditions will return today through Friday as easterly
winds bring drier air to the region. This will lead to a
downtrend in RH values into the 35 to 45 percent range each day.
Easterly 20 ft winds will range from 7 to 12 mph through Thursday.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     90  69  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    90  70  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  90  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  89  72  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      91  72  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      88  70  87  69 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  89  72  90  70 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        89  70  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION.../61/