Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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991 FXUS64 KBMX 210548 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 Easterly flow remains across the area. Today we will be in more of a subsidence zone with the tropical moisture to our east and the weak disturbance that passed this past afternoon to our west. Can not totally rule out a shower or two in the far north or southeast this afternoon, then chances remain at 10 percent or less so will continue with a dry forecast this afternoon and tonight. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. On Saturday, we will see some increase in moisture across the east. This should be enough to help trigger some showers/storms during the peak heating of the day in the east/southeast, so went with 20 to 30 PoPs in this area. The trend of the best moisture remains to our east over Georgia and Florida. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s, so any storm that gets tall enough could certainly be on the stronger side. 16
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Through next Wednesday) Issued at 238 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024 Model trends today show moisture associated with a weak disturbance in easterly flow over the weekend will stay mostly to our east, as it has a hard time infiltrating the slowly retrograding upper level ridge sitting over the region. Have trimmed back rain chances for Sunday. As heights start to fall Monday and moisture increases, will see increased rain chances through the end of the forecast period. 14
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&& .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024 VFR at most locations. There was some periods of rain at TOI, so some fog has developed at the site. For now will only drop TOI to IFR through sunrise. Light to calm winds overnight will increase to 7 to 8 kts by 15 to 16z from the east. Winds decrease again after sunset. Any middle layer clouds today will be around 6 to 8 kft and generally in the few to sct coverage. 16
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Rain-free conditions will persist through tonight as easterly winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 4 to 8 mph are expected today before becoming very light on Saturday. 20ft winds becomes westerly Sunday, at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Sunday. A slight increase in moisture could yield a few isolated showers and storms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, generally near and south of Interstate 85.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden 93 67 96 70 / 10 0 10 0 Anniston 93 68 96 72 / 10 0 10 0 Birmingham 95 71 97 74 / 10 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 94 70 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 Calera 95 70 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 Auburn 92 71 94 74 / 10 0 20 10 Montgomery 94 69 97 73 / 10 0 20 10 Troy 93 68 96 72 / 10 0 20 10
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&& .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...16