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110
FXUS64 KBMX 261749
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1249 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

As Helene moves through the Gulf, widespread rain will move from
south to north over the southeast and eastern parts of the area
through the rest of the day. There could be a few breaks, but the
overall trend will be light to moderate rain fairly consistently.
As Helene approaches this evening, rain should increase in
coverage and intensity, with moderate to heavy rain in the east
and south, and light to moderate rain around the I65 corridor and
in areas west. Overnight tonight, Helene is expected to move east
of the area, and this will keep widespread consistent rain over
mostly the eastern half of the state. Models are diverging on
how much rain will actually make it to the western half of the
state, but with the amount of moisture associated with Helene,
have kept in slight chance to chance rainfall through the night.
Once Helene moves north of the area, the system will then take a
westward turn, with wrap around moisture staying over the northern
parts of Alabama. Models again disagree on how much moisture will
make it around Helene, but kept in slight chance in the northern
counties through the morning Friday. Friday afternoon could bring
slightly higher coverage and intensity as the bands continue to
wrap around Helene, and there is a little bit more instability to
work with, with the greatest chances across the northern third of
the area.

Areas in eastern Alabama received between 3-6" yesterday from the
training storms. These same areas are expected to receive
additional persistent, moderate to heavy activity through the
night. Widespread flooding is expected, with flash and river
flooding a threat. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the
eastern half of the state to account for yesterdays rainfall
totals, added to the rain expected to accumulate through tomorrow
morning.

Winds will increase through the afternoon and evening, with the
highest sustained winds of 20-25 mph possible overnight tonight in
the southeastern and eastern part of Central Alabama. A Tropical
Storm Warning will be in effect for the southeast and eastern most
row of counties to account for these high wind speeds, and a Wind
Advisory will be effect tonight for areas along and between I65
and the TS Warning. With the amount of rain measured in the south
and east, combined with high wind speeds tonight could easily
knock trees down with roads blocked and power outages possible.

24
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

The areas of rainfall will decrease around the cut-off low on
Saturday through Sunday. Meanwhile, the cut-off low persists over
the region through at least Monday before shifting to our east
Monday night into Tuesday. Still may see a few light shower
activity under the closed upper level low over the weekend, but
most guidance keeps the area rain-free, so confidence to mention
any rain chances remains too low right now, but it`s something
we`ll need to watch for in the next few days. If there is a better
day for for a brief shower or two it looks like Monday as the
upper low pushes east. Beyond Monday, high pressure will remain
in control with temperatures generally in the low to mid 80s.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2024

Rain bands will increase in coverage and intensity through the
evening and overnight hours, with activity expected to become more
scattered by Friday morning. With plenty of low level moisture,
IFR ceilings will be expected through the day. A few sites may
alternate VFR and MVFR or MVFR or IFR, but in these situations,
included the lower category as prevailing. Winds will increase as
Helene move east of the area overnight, with wind shear possible
in a few locations. Left mention out of TAF for now due to
uncertainty in timing and location. Wraparound rain and moisture
will continue through the morning on Friday at all sites except
KMGM.

24
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

With tropical moisture increasing ahead of Hurricane Helene and a
stalled frontal boundary, widespread rain is expected through
tonight, with rain chances diminishing through the day on Friday.
Highest chances on Friday will be across the north. Minimal RH
values will be above 60% through the weekend. Winds increase
substantially on this evening and overnight as the tropical
system approaches the northern Gulf coast. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph
are possible for much of Central Alabama, with gusts exceeding
50 mph in the eastern half of Central AL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Gadsden     64  72  61  75 /  90  60  20  20
Anniston    64  74  63  77 / 100  50  10  10
Birmingham  62  73  63  75 /  80  40  20  20
Tuscaloosa  62  74  63  79 /  30  30  20  10
Calera      62  75  64  79 /  70  30  20  10
Auburn      63  77  64  80 / 100  20   0  10
Montgomery  62  82  64  83 /  80  10   0   0
Troy        62  80  63  83 / 100  10   0   0
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&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following counties:
Autauga-Blount-Chilton-Jefferson-Lowndes-Shelby.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for the
following counties: Autauga-Blount-Calhoun-Chilton-Clay-Coosa-
Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lowndes-Montgomery-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tallapoosa.

Flood Watch through Friday morning for the following counties:
Barbour-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-
Elmore-Etowah-Lee-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Randolph-Russell-St.
Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

Tropical Storm Warning for the following counties: Barbour-
Bullock-Chambers-Cherokee-Cleburne-Lee-Macon-Pike-Randolph-
Russell.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24