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524
FXUS61 KBTV 220131
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
931 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from scattered light rain showers in Vermont`s Northeast
Kingdom this evening, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler for Sunday and Monday, with highs generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Our prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather is
expected to end areawide Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper
level trough approaches from the northern Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 922 PM EDT Saturday...Currently observing very quiet
conditions over our CWA as we remain within a narrow ridge of
high pressure, shielding us from rain to our west and east. Main
concern tonight will be the development of valley fog, dense at
times especially over northern New York where skies will be
clear. Otherwise, on track for lows in the 50s for most
locations...locally into the 40s in the colder hollows.

Previous discussion...Western fringe of maritime moisture
plume will continue to affect far nern VT through late
afternoon/early this evening with a few showers expected
(rainfall generally <0.05"). Elsewhere across our region,
a narrow ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to hold in
place overnight and throughout the day Sunday. The mid-level
trough currently across western NY and associated showers are
expected to weaken while encountering the ridge axis across the
North Country.

While showers will end this evening across nern VT, lingering
mid-upper level cloud cover will likely persist. This should
mitigate fog formation across ern VT. Clear skies developing
overnight across the northern Adirondacks should allow for
patchy dense fog formation in nrn NY after midnight and
persisting thru around 13Z Sunday. With light winds, overnight
lows generally in the 40s, except lower 50s in the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valley areas.

During the day on Sunday, 850-mb temperatures cool 1-2C, so
anticipate highs a few degrees cooler than today...generally
ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will remain
generally below 10 mph.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...An upper level trough over the Great
Lakes will push eastward towards Quebec, with a more unsettled
pattern expected across the region for much of next week. Chances
for showers will increase Monday into Monday night as a weak
disturbance approaches ahead of the upper level trough. This feature
may be enough to being a few showers to northern New York, but with
limited moisture it looks to fall apart as it moves eastward, with
very low chances of showers making it to Vermont. Temperatures
during the day Monday will be rather seasonable, with highs in the
mid 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s across the St.
Lawrence and Champlain Valley, while else where will drop into the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Saturday...With the upper level trough continuing to
push eastward, shower chances will continue to increase heading into
the middle of next week. Model consensus continues to show the
greatest chances for precipitation Tuesday into Wednesday as a
frontal boundary pushes into the region with the low pressure to our
west. There is still a little bit if uncertainty regarding the
synoptic pattern for the later half of next week, with an upper low
over northern New England and the Canadian Maritimes and an another
system to the south near the Mississippi Valley. Regardless of the
exact evolution of these systems, continued chances for showers will
be possible throughout most of the week. Temperatures will continue
to be seasonable, with daytime highs in the 60s to low 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mixed VFR skies this aftn with SCT-
BKN070-120 across central/nern VT, generally SCT120-2000 across
the Champlain Valley, and SCT-BKN040-060 in the northern
Adirondacks with localized field of cumulus clouds. An isold -RW
is possible CDA-EFK area of nern VT. Little change through
early evening, and then should see cumulus clouds dissipate.
Overnight, the mid-upper level clouds across central-ern VT
should limit overall extent and intensity of any fog formation.
Mentioned just 5SM BR before sunrise Sunday at MPV with clouds
mitigating radiational fog formation. Should be a different
story in northern NY with dense LIFR fog possible at KSLK,
especially 08-1300Z. Intermittent fog is also possible at KMSS.
Once fog dissipates, should return VFR all areas of the balance
of the daylight hours on Sunday. No significant winds expected
thru the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Duell
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Banacos