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937
FXUS62 KCAE 131021
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
621 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area for the end of the week,
allowing dry conditions to persist through Friday. Moisture will
begin gradually increasing late Saturday with isolated afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms returning Sunday into
next week. Hot temperatures are expected throughout much of the
forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper trough currently moving over the Southeast is bringing
some mid-level cloud cover to the forecast area this morning.
Expect this trough to continue moving eastward today and
tonight. Meanwhile, surface high pressure remains over the area,
but an offshore low will likely cause winds to be around 10 mph
across the area. A seabreeze front is also anticipated to bring
some shower potential to the low country this afternoon;
however, the chance for showers to reach the eastern extent of
our forecast area is very low (<10%). Otherwise, fair conditions
can be expected today. Skies become mainly clear overnight,
which could allow some fog to develop near bodies of water.
Highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday,
with temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight
lows are forecast to be in the mid 60s to around 70.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday the upper level trough will be passing through New
England with the upper level ridge building into much of the
central and SE US. At the surface a weak and diffuse boundary
will be moving toward the area from the north and become
increasingly weak and diffuse as it moves through the forecast
area Friday evening and overnight. Well offshore will be
another boundary with a weak area of low pressure expected to
move from off the GA Coast to the Carolinas Friday evening then
accelerate into the Atlantic Basin as the surface boundary
crosses the area Friday night. Model soundings continue to show
a subsidence inversion in the mid levels which along with 850 to
500 mb lapse rates below 6.0 C/Km will continue suppressing
cumulus development with no convection anticipated. With the
upper ridge building over the region temperatures will be
climbing with afternoon high temperatures reaching the mid 90s
for most locations. Although the air mass will be slightly drier
than normal corresponding heat index readings are expected to
remain several degrees below criteria with upper 90s for most
areas. With this being the first event with temperatures and
heat index values climbing toward 100 continue to urge those
outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well.

Saturday will see little change across the region as high
pressure over the Great Lakes begins moving eastward and will be
centered over New England Saturday night. The upper ridge axis
will be centered just west of the forecast area by Sunday night
allowing high temperatures to range from the low 90s along the
NC border to the upper 90s in the southern Midlands and CSRA.
With a touch more moisture on Saturday heat index values will
also rise a few degrees with readings in the mid to upper 90s in
the northern Midlands and low 100s from the central Midlands
through the CSRA. This again will be slightly below criteria so
do not expect any heat headlines attm however strongly encourage
those that will be outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate
well. The subsidence inversion will be weakening on Saturday
however with dry air expected to remain in the mid levels with
light northerly to northwesterly winds lending a bit of
downsloping any potential for convection would be in the
eastern Midlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper level pattern over the eastern Pacific and western US
will be highly amplified through the first part of the long
term resulting in a high amplitude ridge building over the
eastern US. This will result in a slow progression of the upper
levels with a deep trough over the western US and large ridge
over the eastern US through much of next week. At the surface
the high pressure will migrate from off the New England coast
Sunday into the NW Atlantic by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will
put a ridge of high pressure over the area and turn winds to
easterly to southeasterly and advect moisture into the region.
The main moisture plume will remain over the western and central
Gulf States so expect to see chances of diurnal convection with
pops remaining at slight chance to low chance. Temperatures
through the long term will remain in the low to mid 90s with
heat index readings in the mid 90s to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the 24 hours TAF period.

Mid-level clouds are expected to linger over the area through
late morning or early afternoon before scattering out. The
typical fair weather cumulus field at 5-7 kft is also expected
to develop with daytime heating. Northeast winds of 5-10 kts are
expected through around 00z before becoming light and variable
to calm. OGB could see some wind gusts in the 15-19 kt range
this afternoon due to an offshore low. Skies are anticipated to
clear overnight. The clear skies and light to calm winds tonight
could result in fog at the fog-prone AGS and OGB near daybreak
tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
expected through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances
increase Sunday and Monday but current confidence on
restrictions is low.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...