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922
FXUS62 KCAE 090813
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
413 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon/evening as a cold
front approaches. The front moves through the area and stalls
along the coast early next week. This will result in isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms at times through the
period.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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An upper trough over southeastern Canada/New England will
direct WNW flow across the Carolinas and portions of Georgia
today. A cold front extending from Arkansas into KY/TN will
serve as the focus for convective development. As storms/outflow
are directed ESE through the afternoon and evening, convection
may move into the Carolinas and the CSRA as early as the late
afternoon. Moisture advection into the area will lead to PWAT
values rising from around 1 inch this morning to 1.75 inches in
the afternoon. The warm, moist airmass will become conditionally
unstable ahead of the front/outflow with mean SREF sbCAPE
values around 750 to 1000 J/kg. CAMs are inconsistent with the
convective coverage late this afternoon but at least isolated
storms are expected. Despite weak instability, deep layer shear
values of 30 to 40 kts may promote organized thunderstorms and
supports a low risk of severe thunderstorms. The main threats
would be damaging winds given the inverted V sounding and small
hail. Limited instability, high LCLs, and unidirectional
hodographs limit the threat of tornadoes.

As the front/outflow continues to move through the region
during the evening and overnight any remaining instability
becomes elevated but additional thunderstorms could be triggered
through the night.

Temperatures today may rise into the mid 90s in the afternoon.
If debris clouds from upstream convection is thicker than
forecast it may hinder daytime heating keeping us mainly in the
low 90s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Upper trough deepens north of the region through the day, while at
the surface a cold front will be moving south of the area.  May be
enough moisture along and just north of the front to combine with a
shortwave moving through during the afternoon and evening to produce
isolated showers or storms, mainly across the southern portions of
the cwa. The drier air will be moving in by Monday night, which
should bring an end to any lingering showers.  Highs Monday will be
slightly cooler, with readings in the middle 80s.   Lows Monday
night drop into the low to mid 60s with the drier air.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Continued uncertainty remains in the extended period. Guidance
and blends still indicating at least one dry day on Tuesday. In
addition, there has been a trend towards drying Wednesday out.
Most of the cwa should remain dry, but can not rule out isolated
showers across the southern counties in the afternoon closer to
the stalled front. Did not make much change from Thursday
onward, with scattered showers and storms becoming possible.
However with the region still between systems, some lowering of
pops can not be ruled out even through Friday. Another front
moving in from the north Saturday may combine with increasing
Gulf moisture to bring a better chance for convection to the
region. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal
values.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Winds will pick up today out of the west-southwest around 15Z
gusting from 15 to 20 kts through the afternoon. Convection may
move into the region as early as 21Z but confidence in coverage
is too low to include in the TAF forecast. There may be
additional storms that develop during the evening and overnight
as a front/convective outflow works through the area. Winds will
turn from WNW overnight to NW or N by the end of the 24 hour
TAF period. Outside of any potential convection-related
restrictions, the chance of ceiling and visibility restrictions
is low.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and/or stratus
possible through much of the week. Afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms may also bring restrictions at times.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$