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612
FXUS62 KCAE 080948
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
548 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry conditions through Sunday. Another cold front moves through
the area and stalls along the coast early next week. This will
result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms at times
through mid week. Temperatures will be near or above normal
early in the week but cooler temperatures possible late in the
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A broad upper low to our north will direct NW flow into the
forecast area today. This will reinforce dry weather with PWAT
values between 0.75" and 1" and dewpoints in the mid 50s or a
little lower. A short wave trough may move through the area in
the afternoon but due to the dry air mass only an increase in
cloud cover is expected. Temperatures will be similar to the
previous day with highs around 90 degrees. Moisture increases
slightly overnight leading to party cloudy skies and more mild
lows compared to the previous morning with temps in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the day Sunday will remain on the drier side ahead of an
approaching cold front. Downslope flow appears strong, so
compressional heating ahead of the front expected to keep drier
but hotter conditions. With the downsloping, Sunday afternoon
temperatures will be hot. Highs right now still on track for the
mid to upper 90s. With the dry airmass through the day though,
heat index values will remain relatively close to actual
temperatures.

Moisture does not really begin to increase until the evening
hours just ahead of the front, so area should see the
development of a few showers and thunderstorms during the
overnight hours Sunday night. Instability remains weak, so not
really much in the way of severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Uncertainty regarding rainfall chances each day through the
longer term. Much if this is mainly due to where the cold front
that moves towards the coast eventually stalls out, and whether
any areas of low pressure can develop and move along the front
through the week. Blends generally keep slight chance to chance
pops, mainly for the afternoon and evening hours, which given
the time of year seems reasonable, so will not make any
significant changes. Temperatures appears to be near normal
for most of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions likely through the 24 hour TAF period.

The VAD wind profile from KCAE shows a 30 kt LLJ which will mix
down this morning around 15Z leading to NE winds at 6 to 10
kts. Surface high pressure settles into the region today which
will make winds light and variable by late afternoon. No
restrictions or convection expected due to dry air. Slight
moisture increases late tonight could lead to fog at fog prone
AGS but confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday night
into early next week. This may lead to early morning fog or
stratus and diurnal convection.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$