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446
FXUS62 KCAE 071819
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
219 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air is moving in behind an exiting cold front, keeping the
area rain free this afternoon. Another cold front moves through
the area and stalls along the coast early next week. This will
result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms at times
through mid week. Temperatures will be near or above normal
early in the week but cooler temperatures possible late in the
week.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The axis of an upper level trough has now shifted east of the
area. At the surface, a cold front has also moved east of the
forecast area, allowing drier air to begin filtering into the
region. Dew points have fallen into the lower to mid 60s this
afternoon, several degrees lower than yesterday. Despite the
cold frontal passage, northwest flow aloft is leading to
downslope winds and temperatures rising to the upper 80s to
around 90. Overnight, mainly clear skies are expected with lows
dipping down to the lower to mid 60s. A low-level jet is
expected to develop overnight, which will likely prevent fog
from developing.
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Saturday and Saturday night...Northwest flow aloft with long
wave trough/closed low over New England to the Great Lakes.
Upper level heights begin to rise a bit. Surface frontal
boundary will be southeast of the area in the SC/GA coastal
waters. A short wave trough may move through the area...near NC
border in northwest flow late in the afternoon but only expect
some mid level clouds into the evening. Downslope flow expected
to be weaker than today, weak warm advection noted. The air mass
will be dry with precipitable water 1 inch or less in the
afternoon. Dew points in the mid 50s or a little lower.
Temperatures similar to today with highs around 90 degrees. Some
increase in moisture overnight and lows mainly in the mid to
upper 60s.

Sunday and Sunday night...The upper trough in the northeast
CONUS begins to amplify with additional short wave troughs
moving through the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas. In response to
the trough amplification, another weak cold front will move
toward the area Sunday. Downslope flow appears strong so
compressional heating ahead of the front expected. But
increasing moisture with precipitable water around 1.80 inches
by afternoon should limit degree of heating potential. The NBM
shows 95 degrees at the 25th percentile. Went with mid 90s to
upper 90s for max temps. The cold front appears to move through
the area overnight, with scattered showers/isolated
thunderstorms given weak instability. The showers should
diminish from north to south.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ensembles continue to suggest the front will stall near the area
during the period as the anomalously deep upper low in the
northeast CONUS continues to amplify. A weak surface wave may
develop near the front over GA or FL and track northeast along
the SC coast Monday night or Tue. Several short waves will
rotate through the trough to provide lift as the long wave
trough becomes more progressive and moves east of northern New
England by mid week. With front near the area so keep low chance
pops through mid weak. Overall thunder threat appears low but
some weak instability possible. Thunderstorms may be more
diurnally driven. The ensembles are trending toward an upper low
closed upper low over the Deep South developing mid to late
week. Moisture increases across the area and threat for showers
may be increasing by Thursday into Friday. NBM temperature data
indicates some uncertainty with large spread in the
distributions/given proximity of a front, amplified upper level
pattern and possible development of a closed low to the west-
southwest of the area late in the week. Temperatures appears to
be near normal early in the period with some potential for
cooler than normal temps later in the week. Chance of rain each
day with lower chance Tuesday at this time.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the 24 hour TAF period.

Scattered cumulus have developed this afternoon. Expect these
clouds to dissipate after about 00z. Breezy northwest winds
these afternoon, gusting to 15-20 kts, are also expected to
diminish to generally light and variable. Winds shift to the
northeast late in the TAF period. With the dry air in place,
along with a low-level jet developing overnight, fog is not
expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases early next week
which may lead to early morning fog or stratus and diurnal
convection.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$