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756
FXUS62 KCAE 061742
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
142 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front is expected to move across the region late tonight
into early Friday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
expected along and ahead of the front through the this evening.
Drier air follows the front for Friday into the weekend. Another
cold front will move through the area and stall along the coast
early next week. This will result in scattered diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Temperatures will
be near or above normal.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front associated currently moving through the
Appalachians is forecast to move toward and through the area
tonight into early Friday morning. In addition, and upper
shortwave over the Deep South is forecast to move eastward
toward the Southeast. As a result, increased moisture flux has
begun as can be seen by an increasing cumulus field. As these
features approach the area this afternoon and overnight, expect
scattered showers and storms to develop across the region. A few
of the storms could become strong to marginally severe this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings continue to show an
inverted V profile, indicating a damaging wind threat, much like
we`ve seen the past couple of days. Mid-level lapse rates are
not too steep, thus large hail threat is minimal, but small
hail is possible in the stronger storms.

As the front passes overnight, the chances for showers and
storms diminish from the northwest to southeast, with any
lingering showers likely exiting the region by daybreak.
Overnight lows are still expected to be on the warmer side, with
temperatures bottoming around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Friday and Friday night...Upper level trough with northwest
flow aloft across the area. Ridge centered over the desert
southwest. The cold front should be moving into the SC coastal
plain by daybreak. Drier air will be spreading into the region
with west-northwest low-level flow. Dry downslope flow and strong
diabatic heating will overcome any weak cold advection. So,
temperatures will rise to around 90 degrees, little warmer in
the southeast Midlands. Low temps in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday and Saturday night...Downslope flow continues with
stronger subsidence expected. Temperatures will likely rise
into the mid 90s or a little higher in the afternoon. Warmer
night expected.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The models suggest another secondary front will
move through the area Sunday night as the upper trough to the
north amplifies along the eastern seaboard. Guidance is
indicating showers should be mainly isolated Sunday night. The
front will become stationary near the coast early next week.
Typical summer time pattern through mid week with weak to
moderate instability each afternoon. Ensembles suggest widely
scattered to scattered mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms each day. NBM temperature distribution shows some
uncertainly, but temperatures should be near or above normal.
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&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected except in showers and storms.

Cumulus field is expected to increase in coverage this
afternoon as moisture increases. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across the region, with
the highest chances for thunderstorms at the terminals between
19z-23z for AGS/DNL, 20z-00z for CAE/CUB, and 21z-01z for OGB.
Winds outside any thunderstorms are expected to be from the
southwest, gusting to around 20 kts, through around 00z. After
the front passes, winds shift to more westerly, then
northwesterly late in the period. Low level winds are expected
to remain elevated, so fog is not anticipated tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier weather Friday through the
weekend. Moisture increases early next week which may lead to
early morning fog or stratus.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$