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571
FXUS62 KCAE 121019
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
619 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build over the area from the north
today, allowing dry conditions to persist through Friday.
Moisture will begin increasing Saturday with chances of showers
and thunderstorms returning to the forecast for Sunday into next
week. Hot temperatures are expected Friday and Saturday with
apparent temperatures around 100.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Currently, upper air analysis indicates a trough just off the
east coast with a ridge building over the central CONUS, leaving
us in general northwest flow aloft. A southern stream trough
embedded in the upper air pattern located over the Gulf Coast
states has brought some mid to high level clouds to the area.
This feature has also allowed drier air to settle into the
region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to settle in
across the eastern seaboard.

Today and Tonight: Expect the upper troughs to continue sliding
eastward through the day, while the surface high pressure
continues to build in from the north. The general northwest flow
aloft along with the aforementioned features keep the area dry
today and tonight as temperatures rise to around 90 across the
area while overnight lows drop into the mid to upper 60s.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Disorganized boundary will remain southeast of the area with a
weak area of low pressure expected to migrate northeastward
along the boundary. The low will move from off the GA Coast
Thursday morning and be well east of the NC Outer Banks Friday
afternoon. Friday afternoon another weak surface boundary will
move into the area from the north becoming very weak and diffuse
as it moves in. The boundary will cross the area Friday evening
and offshore Friday night absorbing the weak low and
accelerating it away from the region. Overall with the boundary
and convection offshore the forecast area is expected to be
under subsidence with model soundings continuing the show a
pronounced inversion between 800 and 700 mb Thursday and
Friday. Although weak easterly flow will slowly advect
moisture into the area pwat values Friday afternoon will only
have risen to around 1.25 inches and mid level lapse rates will
be 6.0 C/Km of less each day. This combination will produce
increasing coverage of diurnal cumulus however the inversion
will keep vertical development limited and have lowered pops
slightly each day keeping a dry forecast over the region. One
area of concern to monitor will be the building of the upper
level ridge over the SE US Thursday night through Friday night.
This will push temperatures into the mid 90s Friday afternoon
and although dewpoints will be lower than normal heat index
readings will be nearing 100 degrees. This will be well short
of any heat product however with the first of a couple of days
of hot weather caution is urged if working outdoors and to take
frequent breaks and stay hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Few changes made to the long term forecast with high pressure
from the Great Lakes moving southeastward Saturday and
dominating the eastern seaboard Sunday afternoon through
Tuesday. With the upper level ridge also over the area
temperatures will remain above normal however the easterly flow
across the SE US and entire Gulf Coast will allow for a plume of
moisture to begin moving into the region. Although the plume
axis will be west of the forecast area with the increasing
moisture and instability will see the return to a more summer-
like pattern with chances of diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Sunday through Tuesday. Concern for the long term will focus on
Saturday as high temperatures will push into the upper 90s to
near 100 for much of the forecast area with heat index readings
pushing into the low 100s. Continue to urge caution for those
outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions likely through the TAF period.

Scattered high clouds are being noted over the area this
morning. As daytime heating ensues, a cumulus field around 5 kft
will likely develop during the afternoon. High clouds are then
anticipated to filter in overnight, which should aid in
preventing stratus and/or fog to develop. Light and variable
winds become east to southeast at less than 10 kts through the
daytime hours before becoming mainly light and variable tonight
once again.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid- week before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase Friday and into the weekend.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$