Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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713 FXUS62 KCAE 171048 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 648 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are expected through mid-week. Unsettled conditions are possible by late in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from the Atlantic. Well above normal temperatures are expected by Saturday and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Strong upper ridging will dominate our weather today. At the surface, winds are expected to generally be out of the east with high pressure centered to our northeast. Mainly dry conditions are expected across the forecast area but a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out due to the combination of strong surface heating, the sea breeze boundary, and PWATs between 1.5 and 1.75 inches. Morning low clouds should scour out and transition to partly to mostly sunny skies by midday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Moisture decreases tonight with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected and overnight lows in the upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The region will be positioned along the southern periphery of a strong high pressure ridge centered over New England and the northern Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, an onshore flow off the Atlantic will prevail. Despite the onshore flow, deep layered moisture will be lacking. Long range ensemble mean precipitable water values are around 1 inch on Tuesday and 1- 1.25 inches on Wednesday, well below normal for this time of year. Given the dry atmosphere and subsidence aloft, expect rain-free conditions during the short term period. Temperatures will be moderated some by the cooler onshore flow. Therefore, this period will likely consist of the coolest temperatures of the week, with seasonable highs in the upper 80s to around 90. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Strong upper level ridging will begin to sink south across the Mid- Atlantic and Carolinas Thursday and Friday. Operational long-range models and to some extent long-range ensembles suggest an inverted upper trough retrograding toward the southeast US coast on Friday beneath the strong ridge. While the signal has been weakening during recent runs, there is the potential for a trough or area of low pressure to develop offshore and move toward the southeast US coast Friday into Saturday, and the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from NHC indicates a 30% chance of tropical formation. Despite any potential tropical development, there does appear to be at least a notable increase in moisture across the area supportive of unsettled conditions in terms of diurnal convection on Friday and to a lesser extent on Saturday. Ensembles then support strengthening ridging at the surface and aloft over the western Atlantic later Saturday and Sunday. This will lead to well above normal temperatures over the weekend. In fact, the long range ensemble forecast shows the probability of temperatures reaching or exceeding 100 degrees to be 25-35% by Sunday. The NWS HeatRisk also shows Category 3/Red conditions across much of the area on Sunday, indicating a potential Major Risk of heat-related impacts. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Restrictions Possible this Morning due to Low Ceilings, Especially at AGS/DNL.... Early morning satellite imagery shows low clouds primarily across the western Midlands and CSRA. This is resulting in restrictions at AGS/DNL. Strong upper ridging will dominate our weather today. At the surface, winds are expected to generally be out of the east between 5 and 10 knots with high pressure centered to the northeast. Morning low clouds should scour out and transition to partly to mostly sunny skies by 15Z. Mainly dry conditions are expected at the terminals but a passing shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Have omitted mention of this in the TAFs due to low confidence. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low probability of significant restrictions.
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&& .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$