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794
FXUS62 KCAE 111043
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air spreads into the region through mid week as high
pressure builds in from the north. Moisture will gradually being
returning to the area late in the week leading to increasing
chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will rise
to above normal values especially by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Currently, satellite imagery indicates some patchy fog across
the area this morning, mainly near lakes and rivers. Some mid
level clouds are also being noted over the eastern Midlands at
this hour. Upper air analysis shows a trough gradually moving
toward the east coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is
slowly building over the area.

Today: After sunrise, expect any remaining clouds and fog
to mix out rather quickly. High pressure then begins to build
over the region as the upper trough slides to the east and
temporary upper ridging begins to replace it. As a result,
temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than Monday,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight: High pressure remains over the area and ridging begins
to flatten some overnight. Off to the west, another trough over
the Southern Plains could bring some high clouds to the area,
which may limit fog development. Temperatures overnight are
forecast to be a little below normal, with lows in the lower to
mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain northeast of the area with the remains
of the frontal boundary well south and southeast of the area.
This will keep drier air over the forecast area however begins a
point of uncertainty as models develop a weak circulation off
the SE US Coast late Wednesday and Wednesday night. With the
circulation offshore this will keep the area under subsidence
with models indicating the inversion around 700 mb. Although
surface winds will be light from the southeast moisture will be
very slow to increase and combined with the inversion cumulus
which develop vertically limited so do not expect and convection
through the afternoon and evening hours. Conditions on Thursday
will be similar with the main uncertainty being the model
differences offshore. Regardless of model choice subsidence will
persist over the forecast area with cumulus again developing
through the late morning and afternoon hours while being limited
by the inversion around 700 mb. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s to low 90s Wednesday with low 90s on Thursday.
Overnight lows generally in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models remain in good agreement through the long term with the
main difference being the departing features off the coast of
the Carolinas. Friday a weak surface boundary will be dropping
southward through the eastern US with weak moisture advection
from the Gulf. By Saturday the surface boundary has become very
diffuse and potentially non-existent over the region with high
pressure becoming centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Through
Monday the high will slide southeastward and be centered off the
NJ coast gradually increasing easterly flow and moisture
advection over the area. While this is occurring an upper level
ridge will have built over the central US on Friday and moved
eastward becoming centered over the eastern US Sunday and
Monday. These features will combine to produce slight chance to
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday.
Temperatures will be above normal for most of the long term with
well above normal expected for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Mainly VFR conditions likely through the TAF period.

Patchy fog is being noted across the area, mainly near lakes and
rivers. AGS could see some vis restrictions through 13z or 14z.
There is a low chance for OGB to see some brief fog early, but
confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Afternoon fair
weather cumuli are expected to develop with some high clouds
filtering in overnight. Winds are expected to be from the north
to northeast less than 10 kts for much of the day before
becoming light and variable after about 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid- week before showers-storms
are expected Thursday and Friday.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$