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971
FXUS62 KCAE 120037
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
837 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Drier air spreads into the region through mid-week as high
pressure builds in from the north. Generally dry air is expected
to remain in place through much of the week, with moisture only
beginning to increase again by the weekend or early next week.
Hot temperatures are expected by Friday and Saturday as ridging
aloft increases in strength.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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After temperatures warmed into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon,
the loss of heating has many locations cooling into the low 80s
early this evening. Dry air has settled into the region with
dewpoints in the low 60s, and satellite PW estimates now under 1".
Expect the scattered cumulus from earlier today to continue
diminishing with the loss of heating. However, high clouds
associated with an approaching trough should build in from the west,
while low level southeasterly flow may bring in enough moisture for
some stratus development toward daybreak Wednesday. Lows tonight
will be in the lower to mid 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather is expected during the middle part of
the work week. A mid-level trough is forecast to swing out of
the area by Wednesday but be followed up by a weaker,
positively tilted 500 hPa trough pushing in through Thursday.
Moisture is limited with this as PWs are expected to be below
normal both days, so only fair weather cumulus and thin upper
level clouds are expected either day. Soundings are not
favorable for any significant weather, so expect fairly seasonal
highs in the low 90s across the region. This should be fairly
bearable, with surface dewpoints mixing down into the low to mid
60s in the afternoon hours and keeping heat index values fairly
low. Lows overnight should fall into the mid or upper 60s for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
==============================
KEY MESSAGES
==============================

First bout of relatively intense heat of the year is expected
Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be 96F-99F,
with heat index values over 100F possible. Aside from this,
typical summertime weather is expected Sunday-Tuesday of the
long term, with moisture increasing and leading to daily chance
for showers and storms.

==============================
DISCUSSION
==============================

A weak, diffuse front is likely to approach on Friday being
driven east-southeastward by a trough swinging through the Great
Lakes and northeastern US. Ahead of this, dry air will be in
place across the southeast and Carolinas, fostered by subsidence
aloft on the western side of the departing trough into the
Atlantic. Subsidence inversion aloft is likely on both Friday
and Saturday, with rising heights aiding in forcing that as
well. By Saturday evening, 500 hPa heights are expected to be
above normal and near the 590dm range. This should yield very
warm 850 hPa and surface temps both days, with highs in the
upper 90s. Even with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 60s
each afternoon, both LREF and NBM show good probabilities of
peak heat index values exceeding 100F during the afternoon
hours. As this is the first real heat of the year, be sure to
remember to take frequent breaks if you have outdoor activities
planned on both Friday and Saturday.

Axis of the upper level ridge is generally forecast to shift
eastward beginning Sunday, which should return low-level flow
out of the east and southeast. Bermuda high over the western
Atlantic will likely get going by this point as well, allowing
moisture to increase into early next week. Expect highs nearer
to normal (but still slightly above normal) in the low 90s with
daily chances of thunderstorms expected.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Cumulus deck continues to dissipate as we approach sunset with
clear skies expected through much of the overnight period. Some
high cirrus will push in after 0600z before some additional
moisture pushes in thanks to easterly low level winds.
Significant restrictions are not expected at any terminal with
any lower stratus or fog remaining southeast. Low probability
for some MVFR or IFR cigs is possible at OGB, AGS, and DNL but
confidence is far too low for a TAF mention. VFR conditions
expected Wednesday with light easterly winds and a 4-5k foot
strato-cu deck in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are
currently anticipated through mid-week before shower and
thunderstorm chances increase Friday and into the weekend.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$