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318
FXUS64 KEPZ 260931
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
331 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Active weather will continue with chances for showers and
thunderstorms each day through next week. Today we will have the
best chance for areawide showers and thunderstorms of the week.
The main concerns with these storms will be heavy rainfall that
could lead to flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Triple digit
heat will continue for the lowlands especially for El Paso and
the lower Rio Grande for much of the period despite the rain.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Currently, there are a few isolated showers and thunderstorms
across the our CWA. These storms are non-severe and are ordinary
pulse storms. The winds are light to breezy. Some of these
lingering storms will continue while some dissipates as we head
into the mid morning hours. For today, there might be break in the
active conditions for a couple of hours based on the CAMs;
however, the thunderstorms will begin to develop across the
mountains especially the Sacramento mountains before noon. Most
Hi-res models do suggest that storms will fire off around 12 or a
little after. However, most of the times these orographic storms
do begin earlier in the period. The atmosphere will be humid with
the dew point temperatures in 40s and 50s. The PWATs values will
be mostly above an inch while the mean climatological value is
around 0.85 inches. Thus, with above PWATs and high dew point
temperatures, the risk of heavy rain fall that could lead to
flash flood is marginal based on the Weather Prediction Center.
High pressure will be center over us during the day that will
bring hot temperatures to the lowlands. Despite the ridge of high
pressure over us, thunderstorms will build in due to a weakness
within the ridge. Showers and will continue to linger through the
night hours with some settled conditions toward Thursday morning.
For Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will continue especially
during the afternoon hours as the ridge of high pressure flattens
out. There will be a lot of moisture and sufficient instability
for storms to develop and continue through at least the evening
hours. As with today`s event, the main threat from Thursday`s
storms will be flash flooding and gusty winds. The temperatures
on Thursday will be a couple of degrees cooler than what today`s
temperatures will be at. This will be due to the ridge weakening
and with showers and thunderstorms in the area.

For the rest of the period, active weather will continue as high
pressure maneuvers across the South and the Southeast. The further
east the center of the ridge goes, the wetter we become and the
further west the center of the ridge moves, the drier we become.
By Friday the ridge will move further to the east over the
Southern Mississippi Valley. This will limit the amount of storms
that develops across our CWA. However, a few storms will still
develop in the mountain and along a few outflow boundaries, a few
storms could develop across the lowlands. With that being said,
the temperatures will rebound in the lowlands on Friday with El
Paso and the lower Valley reaching near the Heat Advisory
criteria. As we head into the weekend, the center of this ridge
appears to shift back across the South Plains and as it does
showers and thunderstorms would increase along and West of the
Continental Divide. This ridge will continue to gradually move
across the western half of Texas early next week, which will steer
moisture mainly into Arizona. Toward the middle of next week, the
ridge will move slightly further east, which will allow for the
storms to move across our area instead of Arizona. Even by then,
flooding will be of concern across the entire area.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Lingering outflow boundaries are making for a low confidence
forecast in terms of winds this evening. Nevertheless, prevailing
flow will generally be west to northwest with speeds under 10 knots,
except when influenced by an outflow. Slight chance for ISO
SHRA/TSRA will continue for the next few hours, but chances for
direct terminal impacts are low. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
with variable cloudiness with bases around 100-150 through
approximately 18 to 21z. During the 18 to 21z time period, SCT
SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop area wide, initially over the
mountains before moving into the lowlands. High confidence there
will be at least indirect impacts at all terminal sites via outflow
winds with a high confidence for direct impacts. The only limiting
factor for confidence is timing, so added prob30 to all TAF sites
beginning 21z. Strong gusty winds and heavy rain, including flight
category reductions in VIS and CIG, will be the main concern with
any storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For today, showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the
entire zones. Storms that do develop could produce strong gusty
erratic winds and heavy rainfall. The 20ft winds will be light to
breezy and temperatures above the normal. Tonight recovery will
be good to excellent. For Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will
continue especially in afternoon and in the evening. The 20ft
winds will continue to be light to low end breezy and the
temperatures somewhat above the average. Thursday overnight
recovery will be fair to excellent. For the rest of the period,
there will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms
especially in the mountains and areas along an west of the
Continental Divide. The winds will be breezy especially in the
afternoon while the temperatures continue to be above the normal
as least until Saturday. With that said, there will be no fire
weather concerns through the period.

The min RHs today will be between 18 and 22% in the lowlands and
between 24 and 44% in the mountains. The min RHs on Thursday will
increase 2 to 3% in the lowlands and 4 to 5% in the mountains. The
ventilation rates will be poor to very good today then poor to
excellent on Thursday.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                 107  80 101  82 /  60  80  40  50
Sierra Blanca            99  71  96  73 /  70  60  30  40
Las Cruces              105  75  99  76 /  70  70  40  40
Alamogordo              101  70  97  71 /  60  70  40  30
Cloudcroft               78  55  75  56 /  80  60  60  40
Truth or Consequences   100  74  96  74 /  70  60  60  40
Silver City              94  67  93  67 /  70  50  50  30
Deming                  104  73 100  74 /  50  70  40  40
Lordsburg               100  73  99  72 /  30  40  40  30
West El Paso Metro      105  78  99  79 /  60  80  40  50
Dell City               103  73 102  74 /  60  40  20  30
Fort Hancock            106  74 103  76 /  60  70  40  50
Loma Linda               96  71  93  73 /  60  70  40  40
Fabens                  107  76 101  77 /  60  80  40  40
Santa Teresa            104  75  98  74 /  70  80  40  50
White Sands HQ          103  78  98  79 /  70  70  40  50
Jornada Range           103  72  98  71 /  70  60  50  40
Hatch                   105  73  99  71 /  70  70  50  40
Columbus                104  76 101  78 /  40  80  40  50
Orogrande               102  73  96  74 /  60  60  40  40
Mayhill                  89  61  86  61 /  70  60  60  40
Mescalero                89  59  86  61 /  70  60  60  40
Timberon                 87  57  84  58 /  70  60  50  30
Winston                  91  61  87  61 /  80  50  70  30
Hillsboro                98  70  93  70 /  70  60  60  30
Spaceport               102  70  96  68 /  70  60  50  40
Lake Roberts             93  63  92  62 /  80  40  60  20
Hurley                   97  67  95  67 /  50  50  40  30
Cliff                   102  66 101  66 /  50  40  30  10
Mule Creek               95  69  95  68 /  50  40  30  10
Faywood                  97  69  94  69 /  60  50  40  30
Animas                  100  73  99  71 /  40  40  40  40
Hachita                 101  72  99  71 /  30  50  40  50
Antelope Wells           99  71  97  71 /  50  70  70  70
Cloverdale               94  69  93  67 /  50  60  60  50
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Thursday for NMZ410-411.

     Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through Thursday evening
     for NMZ415-416.
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&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira