-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
641
FXUS64 KEPZ 231004
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
404 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
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Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Our high temperatures will continue to creep higher today as most
lowland temperatures will be in the upper 90`s to a little above
100 and high temperatures on Monday will be even warmer. There
will continue to be a slight chance for thunderstorms today and
Monday, mainly confined to area mountains. Most of the lowlands
will see triple digit heat this week, with Tuesday and Wednesday
being the hottest days. We may see an uptick in rain chances by
the end of the week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Our weather this week will be controlled by our upper level ridge.
Currently the upper level ridge is building into New Mexico and
bringing with it drier air. The combination of this drier air and
the subsidence associated with the ridge will limit (but not
eliminate) our rain chances the next couple of days. As we see
lower rain chances we will see higher temperatures. Today`s high
temperatures will be near or just a little above average, while
Monday`s high temperatures will run 3 to 5 degrees above average.
High temperatures on Monday in El Paso and the Rio Grande valley
of Hudspeth county will approach 105 degrees so a heat advisory
has been issued to start with on Monday.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level ridge will be centered
over New Mexico. Those days look to be the hottest days of the
week. Most of the lowlands will range from 100 to 106 degrees. The
75% of the NBM for high temperatures has been pretty good for our
hot temperatures this year and for both Tuesday and Wednesday the
75% of the NBM is saying El Paso`s highs will be 108. Again with
the ridge aloft, it will limit our thunderstorms activity mainly
to area mountains.

Late on Wednesday and into Thursday, a short wave trough will dash
across Colorado, this trough will give us a little lift, pull in a
little moisture and allow the upper level ridge to drift to the
south. All of this will help lead to a better chance for
thunderstorms across the whole region on Thursday afternoon and
evening. As you might imagine, with increased clouds and rain
chances, we will see a little lower high temperatures for Thursday
afternoon. For Friday and into next weekend, the upper level
ridge looks to recenter to our east which would allow a decent
monsoon moisture flow into the region. This flow pattern would
keep some decent rain chances in the forecast as we finish out
June.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW110/250 but with cumulus
coverage expected to increase again tomorrow afternoon. An outflow
has shifted winds to the north with some gustiness. These winds will
subside gradually over the next 1-3 hours. Otherwise winds will be
light and variable with speeds mostly under 10 knots. SHRA or TSRA
cannot be entirely ruled out at TCS for the next few hours as well,
but chances are too low to mention. TSRA/SHRA chances return to the
area tomorrow afternoon and evening though mainly TCS and DMN have a
slight chance for direct impacts. All sites may see wind shifts from
outflows.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 404 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Fire weather concerns this week, will take the form of possible
burn scar flooding and the return of hot temperatures. Upper level
high pressure will build across New Mexico through midweek, and
that will keep our winds, generally light and help increase our
temperatures. Min RH`s this week will range from 15 to 25% in the
lowlands and 30 to 40% in area mountains. We will continue to see
at least a slight chance for rain this week, but through midweek,
those rain chances will be confined mainly to area mountain. We
will see better rain chances for the end of the week. Ventilation
rates will range from fair to good over the next couple of days.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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El Paso                 102  79 104  82 /  10  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca            94  68  96  73 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces              100  73 102  76 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo               96  68  99  71 /  20  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               72  53  75  56 /  40  20  20  10
Truth or Consequences    93  73  97  74 /  40  30  40  20
Silver City              90  67  92  69 /  50  40  60  30
Deming                   99  72 101  74 /  20  20  30  30
Lordsburg                98  71  99  72 /  30  30  60  40
West El Paso Metro       99  77 101  79 /  10  10  10  20
Dell City                98  68 101  71 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Hancock            100  71 104  74 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda               93  71  95  74 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                  100  75 103  77 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             98  73 100  74 /  10  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           97  78  99  82 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            98  69 100  71 /  20  20  20  10
Hatch                   100  70 102  73 /  20  20  20  20
Columbus                 99  73 101  78 /  10  20  20  30
Orogrande                96  72  99  74 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  84  56  86  60 /  30  10  20  10
Mescalero                83  56  86  59 /  40  10  20  10
Timberon                 82  55  85  58 /  20  10  20  10
Winston                  85  60  88  62 /  70  30  60  20
Hillsboro                93  69  96  72 /  50  30  50  20
Spaceport                95  66  98  69 /  30  20  20  20
Lake Roberts             87  61  91  63 /  60  30  60  20
Hurley                   93  65  95  67 /  30  30  50  30
Cliff                    98  65  99  66 /  50  30  50  20
Mule Creek               91  68  93  69 /  50  40  60  20
Faywood                  93  68  95  69 /  30  30  40  30
Animas                   98  70  99  73 /  30  40  60  40
Hachita                  98  69  99  72 /  20  30  50  40
Antelope Wells           96  70  98  71 /  40  40  60  60
Cloverdale               92  67  91  68 /  50  50  70  50
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&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...Heat Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-
     419-423-424.

NM...None.
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&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice