-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
917
FXUS62 KFFC 240155
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
955 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 934 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
is ongoing across eastern Tennessee this evening. This line is
expected to progress southward the the course of the overnight
hours. MUCAPE between 500-1000+ J/kg will support a isolated
thunderstorms tonight and early tomorrow morning. Have made some
updates to the PoP grids this evening to reflect the latest trends
from guidance. Otherwise the short term forecast remains largely
on track.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Hot conditions continue to be the main story this afternoon. Current
mid-afternoon air temperatures reside largely in the mid 90s, and
widespread upper 90s will be the rule over the next few hours.
Fortunately, efficient mixing has kept dewpoints and resultant heat
index values more tolerable. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed across east-central Georgia this
afternoon along a differential heating boundary associated with an
area of earlier morning cloud cover. These isolated showers and
storms may provide a brief respite from the heat for a select few
over the next few hours, but the vast majority of us will stay dry
through sunset.

However, there will be a bit of a better opportunity for more
rainfall overnight tonight. A trough currently swinging across the
Northeast US is nudging a weak cold front southward into the
Tennessee Valley. This front will make further progress into north
Georgia overnight, and CAMs support a broken area of showers and
isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front as it pushes southward
through early Monday morning. As such, chance PoPs will increase
across north Georgia late tonight into early Monday morning and
gradually shift southward into west central Georgia after daybreak.
While rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch for
most, any rainfall will certainly be welcome amid our ongoing dry
weather.

Unfortunately, this weak front will do nothing to cool off our hot
temperatures as highs will again reach the mid to upper 90s on
Monday. Despite the lack of any cooling effect, a bit of additional
drier air will filter in the wake of the front. Humidity levels will
thus again be tolerable across most of the area with little in the
way of an added Heat Index.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Tuesday is still trending a bit drier as front is expected to be a
bit more progressive than previously forecast. With high pressure
remaining in place over the area, it will be hot, but it looks to be
(relatively) dry, which will keep heat indices in line with
temps. Still, those temps are high even for late June, with upper
90s and triple digits forecast in the heavily sun modified
airmass. Some afternoon thunderstorms will be possible, though it
will depend on moisture availability, and best chances will be in
central GA.

Going forward, there are signs of some moisture return starting to
happen by Wednesday. However, current forecast surface winds are
more from the west, which likely wouldn`t bring any kind of
significant surge in. Afternoon mixing may do a number on dewpoints
as a result. This only matter for the temperature and apparent
temperature forecast - Wednesday looks like it could be the hottest
day of the bunch, but just how miserable it will actually be may be
subject to that moisture return. There will be trade-offs - higher
moisture return means higher humidity but likely slightly lower
temps, but better mixing means higher temps but less humidity. Have
leaned towards a more mixed atmosphere, but Wednesday will continue
to be scrutinized for potential heat related issues.

Next system looks to move in after that, bringing some better rain
chances and (relatively) cooler temps thanks to afternoon storm
chances and rainfall. Afternoon storm chances continue through the
rest of the long term.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions throughout TAF cycle. A front will bring a broken
line of -SHRA/-TSRA will move through between roughly 06-11Z at
the metro terminals and 12-14Z at CSG. Skies will gradually clear
behind the front from NW to SE. W winds will become NW through the
day between 5-10KT. Winds at KATL will shift to the NE at the end
of the TAF period.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on -TSRA. High confidence on remaining elements.

KAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  97  69  96 /  20  10   0  10
Atlanta         77  96  73  97 /  30  10   0  10
Blairsville     68  87  61  89 /  30  10   0  10
Cartersville    72  95  66  97 /  30  10   0  10
Columbus        76  99  74 101 /  10  30  10  20
Gainesville     74  93  70  94 /  20  10   0  10
Macon           74  99  71 100 /  10  20  10  20
Rome            73  97  67  97 /  30  10   0  10
Peachtree City  74  97  70  98 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         77  98  75 101 /   0  20  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...KAB