Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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917 FXUS62 KFFC 240155 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 955 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...Evening Update... .UPDATE...
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Issued at 934 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front is ongoing across eastern Tennessee this evening. This line is expected to progress southward the the course of the overnight hours. MUCAPE between 500-1000+ J/kg will support a isolated thunderstorms tonight and early tomorrow morning. Have made some updates to the PoP grids this evening to reflect the latest trends from guidance. Otherwise the short term forecast remains largely on track.
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&& .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Hot conditions continue to be the main story this afternoon. Current mid-afternoon air temperatures reside largely in the mid 90s, and widespread upper 90s will be the rule over the next few hours. Fortunately, efficient mixing has kept dewpoints and resultant heat index values more tolerable. Otherwise, a few isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across east-central Georgia this afternoon along a differential heating boundary associated with an area of earlier morning cloud cover. These isolated showers and storms may provide a brief respite from the heat for a select few over the next few hours, but the vast majority of us will stay dry through sunset. However, there will be a bit of a better opportunity for more rainfall overnight tonight. A trough currently swinging across the Northeast US is nudging a weak cold front southward into the Tennessee Valley. This front will make further progress into north Georgia overnight, and CAMs support a broken area of showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front as it pushes southward through early Monday morning. As such, chance PoPs will increase across north Georgia late tonight into early Monday morning and gradually shift southward into west central Georgia after daybreak. While rainfall amounts will likely be under a quarter of an inch for most, any rainfall will certainly be welcome amid our ongoing dry weather. Unfortunately, this weak front will do nothing to cool off our hot temperatures as highs will again reach the mid to upper 90s on Monday. Despite the lack of any cooling effect, a bit of additional drier air will filter in the wake of the front. Humidity levels will thus again be tolerable across most of the area with little in the way of an added Heat Index. RW && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Tuesday is still trending a bit drier as front is expected to be a bit more progressive than previously forecast. With high pressure remaining in place over the area, it will be hot, but it looks to be (relatively) dry, which will keep heat indices in line with temps. Still, those temps are high even for late June, with upper 90s and triple digits forecast in the heavily sun modified airmass. Some afternoon thunderstorms will be possible, though it will depend on moisture availability, and best chances will be in central GA. Going forward, there are signs of some moisture return starting to happen by Wednesday. However, current forecast surface winds are more from the west, which likely wouldn`t bring any kind of significant surge in. Afternoon mixing may do a number on dewpoints as a result. This only matter for the temperature and apparent temperature forecast - Wednesday looks like it could be the hottest day of the bunch, but just how miserable it will actually be may be subject to that moisture return. There will be trade-offs - higher moisture return means higher humidity but likely slightly lower temps, but better mixing means higher temps but less humidity. Have leaned towards a more mixed atmosphere, but Wednesday will continue to be scrutinized for potential heat related issues. Next system looks to move in after that, bringing some better rain chances and (relatively) cooler temps thanks to afternoon storm chances and rainfall. Afternoon storm chances continue through the rest of the long term. Lusk && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 753 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions throughout TAF cycle. A front will bring a broken line of -SHRA/-TSRA will move through between roughly 06-11Z at the metro terminals and 12-14Z at CSG. Skies will gradually clear behind the front from NW to SE. W winds will become NW through the day between 5-10KT. Winds at KATL will shift to the NE at the end of the TAF period. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on -TSRA. High confidence on remaining elements. KAB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 75 97 69 96 / 20 10 0 10 Atlanta 77 96 73 97 / 30 10 0 10 Blairsville 68 87 61 89 / 30 10 0 10 Cartersville 72 95 66 97 / 30 10 0 10 Columbus 76 99 74 101 / 10 30 10 20 Gainesville 74 93 70 94 / 20 10 0 10 Macon 74 99 71 100 / 10 20 10 20 Rome 73 97 67 97 / 30 10 0 10 Peachtree City 74 97 70 98 / 20 20 10 10 Vidalia 77 98 75 101 / 0 20 20 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....Lusk AVIATION...KAB