Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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383 FXUS62 KFFC 141756 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 156 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Key Messages: - The warmest temperatures of the year thus far will occur on Saturday. - Dry weather is anticipated for the majority of the region through at least Saturday. Today and Saturday: The primary weather concern during this period will be the heat, as the warmest temperatures of 2024 thus far develop in Georgia. Rising heat concerns will be driven by the combination of an amplifying upper level ridge, rising 850 mb temperatures and ample sunshine. For this afternoon, widespread high temperatures in the mid 90s are expected (5-10 degrees above seasonal averages). Temperatures will climb further on Saturday resulting in afternoon highs in the upper 90s (7 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages). Isolated triple digit temperatures could occur in central Georgia where NBM guidance gives Macon a 20% chance of reaching 100 degrees. The one factor working in our favor with this heat event will be relatively low humidity values (30-40% Friday and Saturday afternoons). This should keep heat indices (feels like temperatures) below the typical threshold for a Heat Advisory of 105 degrees (forecast values are between 98 and 103 degrees), and allow healthy individuals who are properly hydrated to cool off via sweating and evaporative cooling. The heat may however pose a major risk to sensitive populations (children, the elderly or those without effective access to hydration or air conditioning), with the new NWS Heat Risk product suggesting a Red or Level 3 of 4 risk from Atlanta southward into central Georgia. The Heat Risk product is a new collaboration between the NWS and CDC (Centers for Disease Control) that can be found at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. It considers climatological and demographic data when producing a risk level, and in this case the relatively early occurrence of this heat event (in the first half of June) is likely contributing to the level 3 out of 4 risk level. The Heat Risk product should be used in combination with the heat index and WBGT when making heat related decisions. Though good boundary layer mixing may result in scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon and Saturday, dry weather is expected through at least Saturday. The primary drivers behind the continued lack of afternoon thunderstorms will be limited low level moisture and subsidence from the upper level ridge. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 311 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Highlights: -The heat will continue to plague the forecast area through the weekend into next week. -The potential for isolated to scattered rain and thunder chances return Sunday and continue into next week. Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of the long term period (Saturday night) and look to influence the weather pattern through the majority of the period. High pressure starts to slide towards the East Coast Sunday eventually moving offshore by early next week which will result in some gradual moisture return. Ridging aloft will also inch eastward becoming slightly more amplified through the period. All of this will equate to hot and increasing humid conditions along with the return of daily isolated-scattered rain and thunder chances next week. Temperatures through the long term will largely be in the 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where temperatures will be in the 80s. Sunday looks to be the warmest day in the long term with forecast highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. Forecast low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to 70s. 07 && .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 136 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions to continue thru the pd, with primarily FEW to SCT cigs at 6-7kft. Winds will be NW to NNW at 5-7kts today, dropping to light/CALM and VRB at times overnight. Beginning 14-15Z Saturday, winds will likely want to bobble around due N and perhaps swing NNE at times, at 7kts or less. Nonzero chcs for vicinity TSRA near MCN/CSG tomorrow aftn, but currently too low for even PROB30 mention. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High confidence all elements. 96
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens 71 95 72 93 / 0 10 10 20 Atlanta 75 97 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 Blairsville 65 89 67 86 / 0 10 10 20 Cartersville 69 96 72 96 / 0 10 10 20 Columbus 75 100 76 97 / 0 20 10 20 Gainesville 72 93 72 91 / 0 10 10 20 Macon 72 99 74 94 / 0 10 10 20 Rome 70 97 71 96 / 0 10 0 10 Peachtree City 72 97 73 94 / 0 10 10 20 Vidalia 73 99 75 95 / 0 20 20 30
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...96