-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
798
FXUS62 KFFC 211053
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
653 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure and dry conditions will continue through the short
term portion of the forecast. Temperatures will remain well above
normal through Sunday with values averaging 5 to 15 degrees above
normal. Winds will be light and mostly sunny skies with some
afternoon cu will be likely.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

The upper-level ridge in place over the Southeast and Midwest
during the short-term period is progged to dampen Sunday night
through Monday night. The upper-level pattern is progged to
transition to troughing over the eastern portion of the CONUS
Tuesday through Friday, with both the GEFS and EPS generating a
weak area of low pressure at the surface across the Ohio River
Valley around midweek. On Monday and Tuesday, rain/storm
chances/coverage will be relatively low (15% to 25%) and confined
to far north Georgia.

On Wednesday, a weak cold front is progged to progress
southeastward across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys,
potentially traversing the forecast area over the course of
Thursday and Friday. Cloud cover is expected to increase during
the latter half of the work week with area-wide rain/storm chances
of 15% to 30%. A lack of strong flow aloft, along with cloud
cover hindering instability, mean that the potential for
widespread severe weather is low. Rainfall totals through the
long-term period generally look unimpressive (0.25" to 0.75") in
the absence of organized systems (MCSs or squall lines) that would
bring efficient rainfall.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate the development of an
area of low pressure over the western/central Gulf of Mexico
Thursday into Friday. At this time, the National Hurricane Center
(NHC) is indicating a 60% chance for tropical development across
this area in the next 7 days. The expansive moisture field
associated with this feature could impact rainfall totals mainly
across the southernmost portion of the forecast area during the
latter half of the work week, so this potential system will bear
watching. At this time, advertising rainfall totals up to around
1.0" across the southwestern portion of the forecast area. At 6 to
7 days out and with the system yet to even develop, there is much
uncertainty.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR through the period. Winds will be light through the period.
Winds are either calm or light and vrb currently. Winds may try
and come up briefly on the east side, but once mixing begins they
should be primarily on the SW side.


//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence on wind direction. High confidence remaining
elements.

NListemaa
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          68  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         70  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     63  86  64  85 /   0  10   0  20
Cartersville    68  93  69  92 /   0   0   0  10
Columbus        70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     68  91  69  90 /   0   0   0  10
Macon           68  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            68  93  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
Peachtree City  68  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         67  92  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...NListemaa