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420
FXUS62 KFFC 171846
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
246 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

For the short term, it almost a repeat of the past couple of days.
The high pressure remains solidly in place over the area and is
expected to dominate through the middle of the week at least. Rain
chances will remain confined to the northeast GA mountains mainly as
heating and terrain influence gives just enough lift and energy for
a couple of isolated showers/thunderstorms to form. Any of these
storms could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds as the main
threats.

Heat will be the other story for the short term. Temps up to 90-95
can be expected today and tomorrow around 90. Fortunately the
dewpoints will be lower with the drier air over the area, which in
turn means the heat indices will stay right around the actual
temperature. Still take precaution when outside though and check on
those who may not have access to AC. Through tomorrow expecting a
cumulus field to form over the state during peak heating hours with
winds also gusting up to 20 mph at times due to mixing. OVerall
though, a pretty benign forecast through Tuesday!

Hernandez
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Anomalous big 500mb ridge becomes well established and anchored
over the Mid Atlantic with extension SW across the SE states into
the MS Valley region to start the extended period. Thankfully the
700mb ridge will be collocated and aid in providing a deep
easterly fetch, albeit dry, across the SE states. As such, models
suggesting overall layer RH values will be low resulting in
continued low pops through Friday.

By Friday, upper ridge begins to break down and "fill" at the same
time a tropical wave currently highlighted in the NHC tropical
outlooks as a 30% probability of TC formation begins to approach
the SE coastline. Much uncertainty in the models over this wave as
it is yet to form in the area north of PR, however, models do
indicate that at least an open wave is likely to traverse
westward under the large east coast ridge and at a minimum bring
a surge in deeper/tropical moisture into the vicinity. NBM pops
follow suit with a general increase through the weekend as the
members supporting the tropical system/moisture influence the
forecast pops as such. Have no reason to disagree given the
uncertainty in the wave, its ultimate intensity and its ultimate
trajectory. Given the drier environment it finds itself in away
from the gravy train across the Caribbean and into the GOM/SE TX,
it will have a harder time both developing and becoming a larger
circulation. Regardless..there remains a range of possibilities
from an open wave to a TC approaching the SE coastline by the
weekend, which are all pretty well covered by the global models
and their ensembles which overall tend to favor the weaker solns.

Ridge begins to break down through the weekend and fill with
more low and mid level moisture resulting in more climo pops. Temp
forecast from the models for the weekend fall in line with the
rest of the forecast as lower confidence as a result of the mixed
model solutions on the tropical system, shower/tstorm coverage and
clouds.


30
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Expecting another day dominated by the high pressure where
easterly winds are expected through tomorrow. Cu field currently
out there should lift through the overnight before forming again
tomorrow ~16-18z. Gusts up to 18kt should lower overnight before
picking up again tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High on all elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          69  89  66  87 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         72  90  71  88 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     67  83  63  82 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    71  90  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        72  92  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     71  87  68  85 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           68  92  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            73  91  71  90 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  70  91  68  89 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         70  92  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...Hernandez