-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
897
FXUS62 KFFC 230524
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
124 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The Southeast CONUS remains underneath a high pressure regime
aloft, with a mid level ridge extending from the northern Gulf of
Mexico towards New England. North and central Georgia will remain
underneath northwesterly flow aloft through the remainder of the
day into Monday. By Monday night, the ridge axis will clear the
forecast area to the east, with the mid level flow then shifting
to southwesterly. Surface high pressure underneath the ridge will
influence the sensible weather through the short term period. This
will be most notably apparent with the temperatures, with highs
this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon forecast to rise into the
low 90s in north Georgia and mid 90s in central Georgia.
Considering dewpoints will remain in the mid to upper 60s, morning
lows will also remain quite balmy. Whether it be high or low
temperatures, they are expected to be 7-15 degrees warmer than
daily normals through the end of the period. Model guidance also
continues to indicate a weakness in the surface high pressure in
portions of north Georgia. This feature has allowed for isolated
showers and thunderstorms to develop to the north of the state
line, which could spread southward into the northern tier later
this afternoon. However, the organization of showers and
thunderstorms appears to be unlikely, and severe weather is thus
not expected. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible in portions of far north Georgia once again tomorrow
within the northwesterly flow aloft.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Current high pressure over the southern CONUS is expected to dampen
beginning Monday when the low pressure system currently near the
four corners region lifts northeastward into the mid MS valley. As
it moves, an associated sfc level cold front will push into Tennessee
and north Georgia by Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will in
turn increase rain chances for north Georgia. As it pushes further
southward through Wednesday and Thursday the rain chances look to
increase along with the system. The EPS and GEFS are both indicating
marginal shear and sfc based CAPE values at this time, so while
there likely will be thunderstorms associated with these showers, it
will likely be isolated in nature. The risk for any widespread severe
weather remains low. Due to the relatively weak nature of the front
and marginal shear values, organized thunderstorms are not expected
and thus our QPF values remain mainly below 0.5" and will likely be
isolated/scattered in nature.

One positive of this, is the temperatures will start to decrease by
Wednesday into the mid 80s and then the low 80s to start off the
weekend. This will bring temps much closer to normal for this time
of year.

Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the
western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC is now carrying an 80% chance
for tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS
ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere from the
Louisiana/MS coast line to Florida for any potential landfall at
this time although models are beginning to come together better.
Would like to see another run or two of consensus before
certainty increases on our end. Another factor coming into play
is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how it
will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals have gone up
to around 3- 4" over the weekend but again with the uncertainty
this is highly subject to change. More information should come
together over the next couple of days although uncertainty still
remains.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR through the period with sct afternoon cu and cirrus. Winds
will remain westerly with slightly increasing speeds.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

NListemaa
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          69  90  68  85 /  20  30  30  40
Atlanta         73  91  70  85 /  20  20  20  50
Blairsville     64  84  63  77 /  20  30  50  70
Cartersville    70  91  67  85 /  20  20  30  60
Columbus        73  92  71  87 /  10  10  20  40
Gainesville     70  88  68  82 /  20  30  40  50
Macon           72  92  69  88 /  20  10  10  30
Rome            68  91  67  84 /  20  30  40  70
Peachtree City  70  91  68  85 /  20  20  20  50
Vidalia         72  91  70  90 /  20  10   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...NListemaa