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760
FXUS62 KFFC 171342
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
942 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024



.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 940 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The forecast remains on track this morning with only changes made
to account for current observations. The overall trend remains on
track though. A cumulus field around 15000-2000ft has developed
over western GA as the temperatures rise but expected that to lift
throughout the day with daytime heating.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Highlights:

-Warm slightly above normal temperatures continue today and Tuesday.

-Isolated storms possible in northeast Georgia this afternoon and
mostly dry on Tuesday.

Currently, some few to sct mid to high level clouds persist across
portions of the forecast area this morning. S/SE winds remain light
and temperature readings are in the 70s. So overall, a quiet night
and a relatively uneventful weather day can be expected. Midlevel
ridging remains in place over much of the Eastern CONUS with surface
high pressure just off the East Coast. Latest MSAS analysis still
indicates a wedge-like set up across the Appalachians.Aside from
some fair weather Cu and high clouds, the majority of the forecast
area looks to remain dry. Any convection has struggled to
materialize the past few days due to strong subsidence and drier air
(ridge) aloft; despite a slight uptick in low level moisture (S/SE
flow). Though still elected to maintain some slight to low chance
PoPs across far northeast GA this afternoon. Current thinking is any
appreciable rainfall will occur to the north of the area today.
Tuesday will be mostly dry though locales in far southeast GA could
see a stray shower during the late afternoon.

Temperatures today are forecast to climb into the low to mid 90s
except for the northeast GA mountains where temperatures are
forecast to be in the 80s. Again lower afternoon relative humidity
(40% range) will keep heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria
(heat indices greater or equal to 105) today and likely again on
Tuesday. Currently, heat indices are not forecast to rise above 100F
both days. While heat headlines are not currently in effect the
present conditions are enough to cause heat-related illness
particularly to vulnerable populations (i.e. the elderly, children,
pets, and those w/o air conditioning). Be proactive and check in on
friends, family and neighbors -- Beat the Heat!

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Key Messages:

 - The forecast for Wednesday and Thursday remains dry.

 - A pattern shift over the weekend may bring scattered
thunderstorms back to the region.

Wednesday and Thursday:

No significant changes have been made to the forecast during this
period. An upper level ridge should be centered over the Mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday. The prevailing easterly flow on
the southern side of the ridge should usher low precipitable water
values into Georgia. Ensemble means from the GEFS and EPS continue
to favor values near 1 inch, which would be below the 25th
percentile for mid June. Surface dewpoints near 60 degrees and 700-
500 mb lapse rates between 4.5 and 5.5 C/km should also limit
instability during this period. When all these factors are taken
together, it loos like Wednesday and Thursday should see prevailing
dry weather.

Do to the upper level ridge hanging out to our north, we can
anticipated above average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.
Afternoon high temperatures should fall into the 88 to 93 degree
range for most of Georgia (1 to 4 degrees above average). The lone
exception will be the higher elevations in far northeast Georgia
where highs in low to mid 80s are forecast.

Friday and Next Weekend:

The upper level ridge over the Mid-Atlantic should weaken during
this period as an upper level trough tracks through eastern Canada
and an easterly wave moves through the Bahamas. The Tropical Weather
Outlook from the National Hurricane Center continues to maintain a
30% chance for tropical cyclone formation with the easterly wave.
While this system could impact Georgia, and it should be monitored,
widespread significant impacts to the state are not expected at this
time. No matter what happens in the tropical world, we continue to
have high confidence that precipitable water values will rise
significantly between Friday and Saturday. Both the GEFS and EPS
means suggest values at or above 1.5 inches in Georgia by Saturday.
When combined with the decline in upper level ridging, the rise in
precipitable water values suggests a potential return to scattered
diurnal thunderstorms activity by the weekend.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Mid to
high level clouds blanket much of the forecast area this morning.
Noting some FEW to SCT MVFR cigs (1500-3000ft) per latest satellite
imagery. CSG/MCN/AHN could briefly see some of these lower cigs this
morning. Less likely they will arrive at the ATL terminals. Iso
tsra is possible across northeast GA but not expected to bring
impacts to any terminals today. Winds be ESE/SE at 5 to 11kts with
some isolated gusts nearing 18kts possible this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on coverage of any lower cigs this morning.
High confidence on all remaining elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          70  89  67  87 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         72  90  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     66  83  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    72  90  70  89 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        72  92  72  91 /  10  10   0   0
Gainesville     71  87  68  86 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           69  91  69  90 /   0  10   0   0
Rome            74  92  70  90 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  70  90  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         71  91  70  91 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...07