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236
FXUS62 KFFC 161832
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
232 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

At a glance:

    - Unseasonable warmth to continue into the work week

    - Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms today

The Southeast remains in a regime of ridging, with the center of a
mid-level high located across eastern Georgia and the Carolinas, and
the western fringes of a retreating surface high continuing to
overspread the area. The result of the aforementioned features: our
early season "heat wave" continues. Highs this afternoon will top out
in the low-to-mid 90s (aside from northeast Georgia, which will
remain in the upper-70s to 80s). Monday looks to be a few degrees
"cooler", with highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s expected.

The saving grace of this setup continues to be low afternoon
relative humidities (in the 30-40% range), which will spare north and
central Georgia from heat index values that would prompt Heat
Advisory issuance. The moral of the story: despite lower moisture
precluding more oppressive heat, continue to pace yourself -- and
take hydration breaks in the shade -- if planning on spending large
parts of your day outdoors, and always look before you lock.

With a surface high sliding across New York State and off the
Eastern Seaboard and characteristic U-shaped isobars banking up
against the Appalachian mountains, north and north central Georgia
look primed for "cold" air damming through midweek. Aided by
isentropic lift over the "cool" (slightly less hot?) dome, isolated
afternoon thunderstorms are possible today for areas north of I-20.
On Monday, with stability on the increase as the wedge strengthens,
chances for thunder are low for areas outside of the terrain of NE
Georgia, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere. Sensible
differences in temperature under the wedge are unlikely to be felt
outside of far northeast Georgia, where highs will be 5-6 degrees
lower, in the low-to-mid 80s.

96
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and slightly above average temperatures are expected
   Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

 - Rain chances will be on the rise late in the coming week as
   tropical moisture filters back into Georgia.

An upper level ridge oriented N/S will start the period centered
over the Mid-Atlantic states on Tue. This feature is forecast to
pivot and become more E-W oriented by late Wed. At the surface, a
sprawling high pressure ridge will be situated just N of the area as
an easterly wave is forecast to approach the SE US by Thu.

Due to the ridge position and dry air in place over the region, PoPs
will be low to non-existent for much of the area into Thu. The best
chances for diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity will be across
the SE corner of the area, with chance PoPs returning to locations SE
of Macon by Thu afternoon.

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center is giving the
aforementioned tropical wave a 30% chance of cyclone development
through the next week. The latest model guidance has shifted this
feature farther to the S, but it is too early to say whether this
will persist. We will continue to monitor the wave over the coming
days. For now, the main impact from this system looks to be
increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late in the workweek and
into next weekend as precipitable water values increase across the
area. /SEC
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conds to continue with primarily FEW-SCT cu at 5-7kft. AM
low-VFR to MVFR psbl around daybreak for AHN/CSG. Isold -TSRA
psbl at northern TAF sites from 19-23Z. Chcs for aftn pcpn on
Monday currently too low for TAF mention. Winds will be SE/ESE at
5-9kts, with brief pds of VRB winds psbl when speeds drop below
5kt.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence precipitation chances and timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  91  67  89 /  10  20  10   0
Atlanta         74  92  71  89 /  10  10  10   0
Blairsville     67  85  65  83 /  20  40  20   0
Cartersville    73  93  70  90 /  10  20  10   0
Columbus        74  95  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
Gainesville     72  89  69  87 /  10  20  10   0
Macon           72  94  69  92 /  20  10  10  10
Rome            74  94  72  92 /  10  20  10   0
Peachtree City  72  93  69  89 /   0  10   0   0
Vidalia         73  93  71  92 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...96