-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
170
FXUS62 KFFC 161050
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Highlights:

-Above normal temperatures continue today and on Monday.

-Isolated to scattered storms possible this afternoon and early
evening. Isolated storms possible again Monday afternoon.

Midlevel ridging parked over the Southeast and surface high pressure
across the northeast extending southward will keep us warm and
toasty through Monday. Additionally, latest MSAS analysis maintains
a weak boundary draped across North GA. This afternoon, isolated to
scattered storms will be possible. Storms and increasing cloud
coverage will be aided by the surface boundary still present and
isentropic lift associated with wedging of high pressure. While
severe weather is not expected, any storms that form and collapse
may produce a damaging wind gust. Coverage of showers and storms are
slightly higher across northeast GA as terrain may aid in further
development. Isolated storms will be possible again Monday
afternoon, though coverage looks to be slightly less than today.

Temperatures today are forecast to climb into the mid 90s, with
portions of south-central GA (Columbus to Macon southward)
approaching the upper 90s. Areas in the northeast GA mountains will
see temperatures in the 80s both today and on Monday. Similar to
yesterday, lower afternoon relative humidity (30-45%) look to keep
heat index values below Heat Advisory Criteria (heat indices greater
or equal to 105) today. Currently, heat indices are forecast to
range from 95 to 102F. While heat headlines are not currently in
effect please exercise caution if outdoors today. Despite `lower`
amounts of moisture leading to extreme heat, the present conditions
are enough to cause heat-related illness particularly to vulnerable
populations (i.e. the elderly, children, pets, and those w/o air
conditioning). Be proactive and check in on friends, family and
neighbors -- Beat the Heat!

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and slightly above average temperatures are expected
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Rain chances should be on the rise late this week as tropical
moisture filters back into Georgia.

Mid-Week Doldrums:

The core of an upper level ridge should shift towards the Mid-
Atlantic by Tuesday. Easterly flow around the underside of the ridge
should drive an airmass with lower precipitable water values into
Georgia. Between Tuesday and Thursday guidance from the GEFS and EPS
favors (high confidence) precipitable water values near 1 inch
across the state. Climatologically precipitable water values of this
magnitude would fall between the 10th and 25th percentile for mid
June. When combined with surface dewpoints that are forecast to be
in the upper 50s or lower 60s, and mid-level lapse rates in the 4.5
to 5.5 C/km range, the odds of convection appear minimal between
Tuesday and Thursday. Thus or forecast favor dry weather in northern
and central Georgia all three days.

The northeast shift in the upper level ridge during this period will
allow our temperatures to moderate, at the expense of those in the
Northeast who will see their readings rise. Forecast highs for
northern and central Georgia are in the 88 to 93 degree range
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in this range are slightly
above (2 to 5 degree) average for the middle of June.

Friday into the Weekend:

As we transition into next weekend the forecast for Georgia gets
more challenging and uncertain. Ensemble guidance (GEFS and EPS)
favors a gradual weakening and southward shift in the upper level
ridge in response to a trough moving through the eastern Canadian
provinces. Meanwhile our eyes are pointed toward the tropics where
an easterly wave may be tracking across the Bahamas or Florida. The
National Hurricane Center added a 20% area to their Tropical Weather
Outlook yesterday evening to account for potential tropical
development with this feature. From a Georgia perspective this wave
bears monitoring, but it doesn`t pose a significant threat at this
time. Amongst all the uncertainty in the forecast for the end of the
week, the precipitable water forecast stands out as a higher
confidence element. All of the EPS and GEFS members have rising
precipitable water values later this week and both ensemble means
are near 1.5 inches by Saturday. This rise is available moisture
suggests a return to diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm
activity. Thus our forecast allows afternoon storm changes to rise
into the 20 to 40 percent range by Saturday.

Albright
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 649 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Iso to Sct tsra will be
possible btwn 19-00z, though could linger for a few hours after 00z.
Winds may briefly be VRB or erratic as a result of any storms that
form and collapse. Overall winds will remain on the east side (SSE)
at 4 to 9kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on coverage/timing of convection.
High confidence on remaining elements.

07
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Athens          72  91  67  89 /  30  10   0   0
Atlanta         74  92  71  89 /  20  20   0   0
Blairsville     67  85  65  83 /  30  30   0   0
Cartersville    73  93  71  90 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus        74  95  72  92 /  20  20   0  10
Gainesville     72  89  69  87 /  20  20   0   0
Macon           72  94  69  91 /  20  10   0  10
Rome            74  94  72  92 /  20  20   0   0
Peachtree City  72  93  69  89 /  20  10   0   0
Vidalia         73  93  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...07