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306
FXUS63 KFGF 231230
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
730 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms move into eastern North Dakota,
  especially northeast parts, after midnight Sunday night.
  Isolated severe storms possible.

- Monday will see additional severe storm chances all areas as a
  front moves in. All hazards possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 727 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Patchy ground limited to northwest and west central MN at 12z.
It will burn off rapidly by 14z. Skies mainly sunny today with
high pressure moving in. Kept some low pops for a few showers in
Lake of the Woods area this morning but Dryden Ont radar shows
nothing in the immediate area, but still some slight chance
there.  Otherwise dry.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...Synopsis...

Upper low is moving from Manitoba into southern parts of NW
Ontraio today. Lingering showers are possible around Lake of the
Woods mainly this morning with afternoon thunderstorms
associated with this upper low likely to be more Intl Falls and
east. High pressure will build in today giving us a good deal of
sunshine, though may have to deal with some early morning low
clouds and patchy fog.

...Late tonight...

Water vapor showing our next system moving into west central
B.C. from the Pacific and this upper low will track east thru
central Canadian praries from Edmonton region this afternoon to
central Manitoba 18z Monday. Surface low with this feature also
will track well north of the International border. This system
is quite strong and there will be a 40kt 850 mb jet that will
develop this evening from eastern Montana north thru central
Saskatchewan just ahead of a surface trough. No thunderstorms to
our south with this feature so with growing crops moisture
advection sfc-850 mb will be impressive with dew pts into the
60s into Saskatchewan and eastern Montana this evening. T-storms
likely to form near sfc trough Saskatoon area to west of Regina
SK late today and then move east-southeast and continue to
develop with aid of warm advection at 850 mb and low level jet.
Late evening/midnight period storms will move into north central
ND and then should spread thru parts of eastern ND, especially
northeast parts, pre dawn hours Monday morning. Low level jet
maintains 40-50 kts and warm advection is strong at 850 mb thru
12z Monday into E ND. Therefore storms will survive and could be
near severe levels with hail and wind threat. Storms will be
elevated in nature, rooted 850 mb layer. SPC has a marginal risk
of severe storms into NE ND for this reason late tonight.

...Monday...

Conditions Monday will favor severe storm development. Lots of
questions yet as morning convection will likely move thru and
may impact degree of warming in the aftn. Dew pts will reach the
low 70s in many areas though esp withing the RRV. Speed of
movement of surface trough is also an issue, with drier airmass
behind it. Latest HRRR indicates though a bit slower movement of
this trough/wind shift east than some global models suggest.
CAMs indicate sfc trough may still be located Langdon-Devils
Lake-Jamestown area. MU CAPES in the 3000-4500 j/kg will exit
21z Monday in E ND/RRV and models indicate cape will be eroding
with HRRR indicate CIN values after 21z rapidly lowering. So
thoughts would be some initiation along or just east of the sfc
trough Monday mid aftn and move into into MN in the evening.
Location of development as mentioned is keyed on position of sfc
trough/wind shift. 50-65 kt 0-6 km bulk shear more than enough
for supercell formation initially which likely will evolve into
more of a line into MN Monday evening.

...Late week...

The next in the endless series of upper waves moving thru
southern/central Canada will likely bring a round of
thunderstorms, potentially strong, late Thursday or Friday to
the area. Heavy rain threat too.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
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Issued at 727 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Outside of patchy ground fog lasting to 13-14z today, VFR today
with majority scattered clouds with some CU and mid cloud
patches. NW wind 8 to 15 kts today. Clear with light wind this
evening then increasing clouds into E ND after 06z Mon with risk
of a few storms into DVL region.
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&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle