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119
FXUS62 KGSP 190537
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
137 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure atop the region will suppress any storms from
developing this week until moisture returns on Saturday. A heat
wave gets underway on Friday and remains hot through the weekend.
A weak cold front approaches from the north early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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As of 1:25 AM EDT Wednesday: Sct to bkn high clouds continue to
stream overhead from the north and west as winds have gone calm
at numerous observation sites. The rest of the overnight and
morning should remain quiet with some patchy fog possible in
the usual mtn valleys. Lows will be noticeably cooler this
morning compared to the past few mornings, but still remain
near climatology for mid-June.

Otherwise, an upper anticyclone and attendant strong ridge will
continue to gradually pivot west-through-north of the fcst area
thru the period. This will result in establishment of deep ELY
flow across the CWA, which will act to support a relatively low
theta-E air mass beneath warm mid-lvl temps. Diurnal instability
will therefore be very limited through the period, with positive
sbCAPE generally expected to be limited to locations near the TN
border this aftn, and west of the fcst area on Wednesday. There`s
currently a decent amount of enhanced cu-stratocu across western
areas, so can`t rule out a shower or two developing across the
ridgetops, and perhaps even along the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment.
However, even that will be difficult to come by on Wed. Drier air
will finally allow min temps to settle to near-normal tonight,
while maxes Wednesday should be within a degree or so of climo.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 1205 AM EDT Wednesday: The cwfa is still expecting to be
within the southern periphery of strong 597 dm ridge centered over
the mid-atlantic to start off the period.  Large scale subsidence
will result in another capped day on Thursday with the llvl easterly
flow tempering potential warming, so that maxes top out close to
climo. On Friday, the magnitude of the upper anticyclone will begin
to diminish as it`s axis drifts south to orient itself atop the
Carolinas, but effectively, will continue to suppress any deep
convective development.  With the attendant sfc hipres center
sinking southward as well, the llvl flow picks up a southerly
component, aiding to boost maximum temperatures to above normal
levels. High temperatures on Friday are still slated to range from
the lower 90s east of the mountains or about 2-4 degrees above
normal, with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 for the mainstem
mountain valleys.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday: Upper ridging lingering atop the region
to start off the period is still progged to yield weak cyclonic flow
aloft in response to height falls across the Midwest and Ohio
Valley. As larger scale suppression wanes, isolated, diurnal,
terrain aided storms are possible in the mountains on Saturday
before a return to climatological deep conective chances cwfawide on
Sunday. Perhaps the more notable weekend feature will be the
prominent llvl thermal ridge which should lead to piedmont maximums
in the middle 90s each day, and will the uptick in sfc dwpts, heat
index values could be around 100 in spots on Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to continue thru
the 06 taf period at all terminals. Sct to bkn high clouds will
persist over the area thru the overnight and into the morning,
with few to sct cumulus expected again this aftn/evening. Winds
will be light thru the morning and favor an ELY to SELY direction
overall. They will pick up from the E this aftn and remain ELY
thru the evening with a few low-end gusts possible during the
aftn/early evening. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to
calm thru the morning and then pick up from the SE by the early
aftn with some low-end gusts possible.

Outlook: An expansive upper ridge will keep things mostly dry with
VFR conditions thru Friday. Mtn valley fog and/or low stratus will
be possible most mornings. Diurnal convection could return over the
weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT/TW
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JPT