Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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903 FXUS64 KHGX 222317 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 617 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 An upper level ridge will build into the South Central CONUS as we close out the weekend, bringing about a generally benign pattern to the region characterized by hot and humid weather with daily chances of diurnally driven sowers and thunderstorms. Elevated east winds will continue to shift to the southeast overnight and into tomorrow as the tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf pushes towards the Eastern Mexican coastline. As such, warm but otherwise generally seasonable conditions will develop tomorrow, with highs in the mid 90s for most of the area (near 90 along the coast) and overnight lows in the upper 70s (near 80 along the coast). Increasing temperatures tomorrow will produce heat index values in the 105-107 range during the afternoon across most of the area. Given this, we will need to monitor for the potential for a Heat Advisory, though at this time it appears unlikely. Regardless, with outdoor weekend activities ongoing tomorrow, it will be important to prepare for hot conditions by staying hydrated, wearing sunscreen, and wearing light colored/loose fitting clothing if planning to head outdoors. Adams/Cady && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Upper ridging will continue to dominate the extended period, with a rather uneventful week expected across the area aside from some daily isolated thunderstorm chances. The presence of a subsidence inversion along with a lack of synoptic forcing will generally suppress widespread rainfall potential over the duration of the week. However, given the hot and relatively humid conditions in place this afternoon, a few thunderstorms could presumably be triggered during the afternoon each day by diurnally driven features like the sea breeze. As such, PoP values of approximately 20% can be expected for much of the Greater Houston area this week with slightly higher potential along the immediate coast. Highs each day will generally approach the mid to upper 90s inland and the lower 90s along the immediate coast, while steady WAA will provide elevated lows in the upper 70s/near 80 each night. Afternoon heat index values will begin to approach the 110 mark in some locations by Monday, and as a result we will need to consider possible Heat Advisories during the course of the week. Heat safety precautions will continue to remain a priority regardless of whether an advisory is issued or not. Cady && .AVIATION...
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(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 An hour or two of ESE/SE 5-10 knot winds, then light/VRB and virtually SKC overnight. Winds come back up to 5-10 kts tomorrow afternoon. Rain chances not zero tomorrow, but expected any stray seabreeze showers to crop up well west (or south in CLL`s case) of the terminals.
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&& .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Light to moderate onshore winds will generally prevail throughout the course of the upcoming week, with wave heights diminishing heading into tomorrow as the tropical disturbance in the SW Gulf approaches the coast. In general, conditions should remain below caution thresholds. Isolated showers and storms may develop during the afternoon hours each day, but coverage should not be extensive. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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College Station (CLL) 72 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 75 95 76 95 / 0 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 82 91 / 0 10 10 10
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&& .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ214- 313-338-438-439. High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Cady