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FXUS63 KIND 170136
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
936 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Clear tonight.
- No Rain this week.
- Afternoon RH values near or below 30% during the afternoon through
  Tuesday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 936 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Yet another extremely quiet night in progress across central
Indiana, with excellent radiational cooling conditions. Have
adjusted min temps downward a bit again using bias corrected
guidance sources, particularly north, where dewpoints remain in the
well down into the 40s in many areas. Indy should again be the warm
spot as urban heat island effects from easterly winds keep lows
around 60 or so, with much of the rest of the area likely to drop
into the 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A Rex Block is once again leading to very warm and dry conditions
across central Indiana early this afternoon. GOES-16 satellite
indicated sunny skies across central Indiana. The diabatic heating
and modest diurnal mixing has allowed temperatures to soar into the
80s as they did yesterday in this persistent pattern. Conditions are
expected to slightly change Tuesday afternoon as a low pressure
system, currently over the eastern Carolinas moves into the Smoky
Mountains. This will likely bring some increase in cirrus and
perhaps high clouds to eastern sections of central Indiana. The
cloud canopy may be enough to keep temperatures down several degrees
there Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, the DESI grand ensemble suggest
highs over the Wabash Valley will still be above normal with highs
in the middle to upper 80s. Meanwhile, clear skies and light to calm
winds tonight will lead to optimal radiational cooling. Dew points
in the 50s this afternoon with no changes in the air mass suggest
most areas will bottom out in the 50s with the chilliest
temperatures over northeastern sections.

See the Fire Weather section for more details on fire weather
concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue through much of
the extended due to a stagnant upper level pattern. The stagnant
pattern is keeping the region under the influence of upper level
ridging and surface high pressure which will greatly limit any
potential for measurable precipitation.

Temperatures will stay above normal with the dry pattern persisting
at least to the end of the week. Biggest concern is going to be fire
potential as fuel moisture will be low within the ongoing drought
and afternoon relative humidities will be low. Take precautions with
any burning or outdoor equipment use as any fire sparked could
quickly spread in these conditions.

There is a slight chance of rain early to mid next week as models
are hinting at an upper trough moving in, but there is not yet
agreement on timing or amplitude at this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 627 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Impacts:

- None

 Discussion:

VFR through the period with no impacts expected. Clear or mostly
clear skies, unrestricted visibility, and easterly winds less than
10KT can be expected under the continued influence of a blocking
pattern.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The dry conditions and trends suggest the MinRH will fall to around
25 to 30% this afternoon as the fuel moisture drops below 8%. That
said, 20 foot winds are only expected to peak at 5 to 8 knots. So,
although there is a concern for fires to pop up but wildfire spread
is not a huge concern. Conditions will be similar Tuesday afternoon
regarding fire danger.

Some municipalities in central Indiana have activated a burn ban.
Exercise caution if burning today and Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Nield
FIRE WEATHER...MK