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631
FXUS63 KIND 160655
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
255 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Continued Dry, Mostly Sunny and Hot Today.
- Mostly Clear tonight.
- No Rain this week.
- Afternoon RH values near or below 30% during the afternoon through
  Tuesday.
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.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Synopsis:

Surface analysis this morning showed strong high pressure in place
east of New England. This large high continued to control the
weather across much of the eastern half of the nation, with a
surface ridge that extended west across the Great Lakes to
Wisconsin. Light easterly surface flow was in place. A tropical
system was found off the coast of the Carolinas. GOES16 imagery
shows clear skies across Central Indiana. Dew points were in the dry
40s and low 50s. Aloft, the upper pattern remained rather unchained,
with a deep trough in place over the western CONUS and the large
stacked high in place over the northeast. This was resulting
southwest flow over the Rockies and the western plains pushing well
north of Indiana to Ontario and Quebec, keeping any forcing dynamics
from tracking across Indiana.


Today and Tonight -

Models show little overall change in the ongoing pattern across
Central Indiana through Tonight. Forecast soundings maintain a very
dry column with subsidence. Models suggest the surface ridging to
the north to drift southward today and tonight. This will again
enhance the ongoing subsidence.  The previously mentioned tropical
system to the southeast will begin to advance tonight west today and
tonight, but will not impact or reach Central Indiana today or
tonight. This systems impact by midweek may only amount to a few
clouds.

Thus overall, another sunny day and clear night will be expected.
With little change in the overall air mass, highs in the upper 80s
and lows near 60 will be expected, quite similar to ongoing
persistence.
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.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
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Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Quiet weather conditions are expected to continue through much of
the extended due to a stagnant upper level pattern. The stagnant
pattern is keeping the region under the influence of upper level
ridging and surface high pressure which will greatly limit any
potential for measurable precipitation.

One interesting feature to watch is Potential Tropical Cyclone 8
currently off the coast of the Carolinas. Mean flow from upper
ridging centered over the Northeast should help the disturbance
drift northwest towards southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic
possibly bringing some minor impacts to the forecast this week.
Precipitation looks unlikely due to moisture getting wrung out from
the Appalachians and having to fight with subsidence induced dry air
over central Indiana. However, an increase in clouds is expected
Tuesday-Thursday from the approaching vort max. Look for slightly
cooler highs during this period, mainly over eastern portions of the
area where the greatest cloud cover should be. A few stray showers
cannot be completely ruled out around midweek just yet, but lack of
support in model guidance leads to very low confidence.

By late this week, upper level ridging amplifies over the eastern
CONUS leading to less cloud cover and a slight warm up. Large scale
subsidence will allow dry conditions to persist with no rain in
sight exacerbating the drought. Temperatures are generally going to
be in the 80s this week. The warmest days should be late week when
the upper ridge amplifies.
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&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions expected

Discussion:

The strong area of high pressure that remains anchored over the
northeastern states, extending west to the Great Lakes, Indiana and
the Ohio valley, will continue to control the weather across the TAF
sites through 171200Z. Forecast soundings continue to show a dry
column with ongoing subsidence. Once heating and mixing returns
after sunrise, light east winds of 5-10 mph are expected.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 254 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Minimum RHs today will fall to 25 to 30 percent, however light
east winds will only reach 5-10 mph. A lack of rain continues to
result in very dry ground as well as dry fuels. Some
municipalities in central Indiana have activated a burn ban.
Exercise caution if burning today as fire weather conditions will
remain enhanced.

With the very dry conditions, we will have to keep a close eye on
winds the next few days for potential headlines but as of now we
will not be issuing headlines.
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&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Puma
FIRE WEATHER...Puma