-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
188
FXUS62 KKEY 231847
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Although there is currently a lull in convection, deep tropical
moisture continues to dominate our region. This morning`s KEY 12z
sounding observing 2.17 inches of precipitable water which is
above the 90 percentile according to SPC climo values for today.
MIMIC precipitable water verifies our sounding represents the
whole area showing high PWAT values surrounding the CWA. Above
normal rain chances will continue as long as the moisture sticks
around as well as the trough aloft that has been lingering over
Florida. Have elected to slightly increase PoPs for tonight and
Monday due to the setup being very similar to yesterday and this
morning. Guidance is suggesting PoPs should be increased more but
60% seems appropriate for the time being.

Into the middle to latter part of this week the Atlantic high
pressure will build in and with the associated mid-level ridging,
we will see a slackening of winds, and moistures return to near
normal. Therefore, PoPs will return to near climo for this time
of year. Besides the uptick in PoPs for tonight and Monday, no
significant chances have been made to the forecast package.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure
over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of
Campeche will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes
through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle
southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and latter
part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing
over the Keys waters.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A lull in convection for the island terminals is expected through at
least 00z this evening. Thereafter, recharging of the atmosphere by
late this afternoon or evening warrants inclusion of another
extended period of VCSH in the TAFs. Uncertainty for the timing and
location of the next round of convection tonight is  quite high, and
short-term amendments will be issued as needed based on radar
trends. Near surface winds will generally be from the east to
southeast at 6 to 10 knots.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest