-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
436
FXUS64 KLIX 250436
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Just walk outside and yep you will know the forecast. It`s
Summer, hot, muggy, daily rain chances, and just downright
oppressive conditions. This afternoon temps rose into the lower to
mid 90s across the entire region and with dewpoints in the 70s
this easily led to heat index values in the 100s with most sites
sitting between 104 and 110. A line of convection that was moving
through central MS/AL earlier this morning finally began to
approach the area this afternoon however most of it weakened with
widely scattered storms along the old outflow boundary and the
greatest concentration of storms over portions of coastal MS.
Heading into this evening isolated to widely scattered storms will
continue for an hour or two but most activity should quickly
dissipate over the land and become more marine focused.

Over the next few days look for rather similar conditions with the
one aspect of slightly increasing rain chances especially by
Wednesday and into Thursday. The ridge that has been retrograding
should become centered over the four corners by Tuesday and then
begin to amplify. In response we will see troughing over the eastern
CONUS and this will send a s/w south through the Mid MS Valley and
into the Lower MS Valley late Wednesday. By Thursday this s/w will
really slow down and become trapped along the coast and into the
northern Gulf while the ridge axis on the east side tries to build
back to the east over top of it. This should lead to much better rain
chances Wednesday and Thursday with Wednesday having the biggest
question mark mainly due to timing.

Tuesday will likely be almost a carbon copy of today except likely a
little more oppressive. Ridge will still be firmly in control with
h925 temps around 27-28C leading to highs in the same ball park as
today. The biggest difference is going to be higher humidity values
as LL moisture continues to increase along with whatever rain falls
over in the next few hours. With highs in the mid to upper 90s again
and likely higher humidity values in the BL, heat index values will
be a touch higher than they were today. With that we have issued
another heat advisory for the same area.

Wednesday and Thursday we will continue to see oppressive conditions
but the saving grace could be scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Again Wednesday seems to be the biggest question mark
as timing could be the issue. Main issue is the energy coming out of
the PAC over the Washington and British Columbia. This impulse
should begin to surge southeast out of the High Plains Tuesday
evening across the Plains and into the Mid MS Valley by Wednesday
morning. If it is this fast and can begin to move into the Lower MS
Valley around midday then there will be a good chance of decent
coverage of storms by mid/late afternoon. That said we will be under
northwest to northerly flow and remember this typically leads to
convection beginning much later in the day and that would allow the
region to warm up again along with another heat advisory likely.
Thursday we will have the impulse or remnants of it sitting right
over top of us and this should allow for convection to develop
rather quickly. This would keep highs down a few degrees and thud
the oppressive conditions to slack off some. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Going into Friday and the weekend, upper level ridging is expected
to build back into the area. Despite some weak subsidence aloft
associated with the high, there should still be enough moisture in
place to support scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. In
fact the latest run of the GFS indicates PW values could still be
hovering near or just under 2 inches through the latter part of the
week and weekend, which puts the value above the 75th percentile for
this time of year.

Expect to see daily showers and thunderstorms with the typical
summertime diurnal max in the mid to late afternoon, diminishing in
the early evening. Temperatures will be running above normal, and the
aforementioned ample moisture may bump the afternoon heat index
values above advisory criteria, but we`ve got time to monitor those
trends. DM/95

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the
overnight hours. Some MVFR VIS has been noted at MCB again, but
low confidence beyond some bounces in VIS. Introduced VCTS and
PROB30 groups to tomorrow afternoon with highest chance of impacts
to terminals being 18-21 UTC for immediate coastal areas and beyond
20 UTC along and north of I-10/12. Storms will be capabale of
strong gusty winds varying from prevailing winds and substantial
drops in VIS/CIG.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

High pressure continues to dominate the coastal waters with light
onshore flow which will continue through midweek. A front will
move toward the region mid week to late in the week before
washing out which will help keep the pressure gradient on the
lower side. Only time winds may pick up would be overnight east of
the MS delta during the typical diurnal increase during the
Summer. Otherwise, convection will be possible especially during
the overnight, which could locally increase winds and seas. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  74  95  74  93 /  10  30  20  50
BTR  78  98  78  96 /  20  50  10  50
ASD  77  96  78  94 /  20  40  10  50
MSY  79  94  80  94 /  30  50  10  60
GPT  77  94  77  94 /  20  30  20  50
PQL  75  98  77  96 /  10  20  20  40
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...CAB