-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
605
FXUS64 KLIX 101721 AAC
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1221 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...NEW AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A few low-topped showers have developed across coastal locations
of southeast Louisiana this morning. Did need to adjust POPs
upward respectively. Still watching the surface front move toward
our CWFA from the north and northeast. As the front arrives and
potentially interacts with local mesoscale boundaries (sea/lake
breezes for example) there will remain a chance for showers and
possibly a thunderstorm or two through the afternoon and evening
before the rain chances shift mostly offshore. (Frye)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast are somewhat uncertain.
Currently we have widely scattered showers that have been
developing off and on along the SELA coast and SSW into the Gulf.
This appears to be associated with a surge of LL moisture slowly
moving to the NNW. We also have a weak front pushing south and at
8z was already through central AL, central MS and into central LA.
This front will continue to slowly work south and is expected to
approach the coast tonight. Prior to the front getting here we
will likely warm up fairly quick and temps are expected in the
lower to mid 90s again. The question is can we get any storms.
Most of the guidance suggest there is a chance but we will be
looking at widely scattered storms at best and likely confined to
2 general areas. First and most likely location`s to at least get
some convection today will be coastal MS. This front should
approach that area this afternoon while a weak seabreeze will
likely have already developed. The combination of these two should
be enough to get some convection. Mid lvl temps will be a touch
cooler in that area as well so it should be a little easier to get
some storms there. The other location could be the southwest
half/3rd of the CWA. A light wind field should allow for both the
seabreeze and lake breeze to develop. We should see the seabreeze
come north from the SELA coast (Terrebonne Bay), while another
portion of the seabreeze moves northeast from the Atchafalaya Bay,
and then these 2 will likely interact with a
southward/southwestward moving lake breeze. All of these
boundaries will likely interact at some point and that is usually
a good catalyst for convection. The one problem is currently we
have rather dry air over much of the CWA but that there are 2
areas of deeper moisture with the first associated with the front
but the second is a plume of deeper moisture west of the
Atchafalaya Basin and that is expected to get squeezed to the east
some today. across the northwest rain may be a little more
difficult to come by today.

Tomorrow, may be the one fairly pleasant day, well pleasant for
Summer. As that front pushes just off the coast we will see drier
air work into the region. In addition LL temps will take a momentary
hit with h925 temps possibly ranging from 22 to 24. That should
yield highs in the upper 80s to a few mid 90s. But with low
dewpoints the heat index will not be an issue. The one possible
caveat could be the immediate coast and that will have a lot to do
with how far the front makes it south. If it eventually stalls over
the coast or just south then there will likely be isolated to widely
scattered convection across the SELA coast. If it can punch far
enough into the Gulf then the coast will likely be rain free as
well. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Medium range models and ensembles all seem to be a fair agreement
and continue to trend with a drier and warmer fcst. There are
some differences in the details on the back end of the fcst
however the same general conditions are being advertised. Biggest
difference comes by the end of the weekend and into next week and
how the pattern evolves which will dictate where the deep tropical
moisture will eventually go. Overall NBM looks good, too many
uncertainties or small deviations to could have a sizable
adjustments to the forecast.

Heading into the 2nd half of the work week we will begin with a
lingering weakness/trough axis draped across the southeastern CONUS
into south-central TX. Many times in the Summer this could be the
final piece of the puzzle to get decent convective coverage. The
biggest problem is the front that came through Monday evening and
the rather extreme positive tilt to this really helped to drive the
deeper moisture south into the Gulf. This likely keeps most if any
convection we see along the SELA coast or in the Gulf on Wednesday.
LL temps will already be starting to tick up from Tuesday and h925
temps could be back around 25C. This should have little trouble
leading to highs getting back into the lower to mid 90s.

Thursday and Friday that weakens will begin to shift southeast and
we will see the ridge that has been sitting over the 4 corners shift
east. The rising hghts along with increasing LL temps will lead to
warmer conditions. By Friday we could be dealing with highs in the
upper 90s in a good chunk of the CWA.

By this weekend we could be dealing with the hottest weekend of the
year so far. However, a lot will depend on the placement of the
ridge over the southeastern CONUS, a s/w west of the ridge (which is
currently digging and cutting off southwest of the CA coast) and how
the an area of disturbed weather and rich tropical moisture coming
out of the western Caribbean and into the Gulf evolves. If the
Pacific disturbance remains deep enough it may erode the western
edge of the ridge enough to allow that area of disturbed weather to
ridge up through the western Gulf and could bring a rather healthy
dose of rain to the area beginning Sunday. If the ridge holds true
then Saturday and Sunday could be...HOT. H925 temps could be
approaching 30C and this would have little trouble leading to a few
locations hitting the century mark. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Outside of convection, VFR conditions are expected through the
cycle. Winds will vary through the cycle but should remain rather
light, again outside of convection. Speaking of convection, the
best potential will be for the coastal terminals so carried TEMPOs
this afternoon respectively. (Frye)
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Current onshore flow will continue through today until a weak
front pushes into the northern Gulf later tonight. Behind that
front offshore winds will develop for the inner waters through
Wednesday before the front washes out and we see a return to
onshore winds by Thursday afternoon. By Friday and into Saturday
we could see a slight increase in the gradient with moderate
onshore flow developing. In addition we will likely begin to see a
swell develop out of the southeast as persistent southeast winds
start to develop Friday night across the Gulf from the Yucatan
channel to the north-central Gulf through the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  67  88  63  90 /  20  10   0  10
BTR  73  93  70  94 /  10  20   0  20
ASD  73  92  69  94 /  20  20   0  20
MSY  78  91  76  92 /  20  40  10  20
GPT  73  91  71  92 /  30  10  10  20
PQL  71  94  68  95 /  30  10  10  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB