Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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007 FXUS64 KLIX 082006 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 KEY MESSAGES: 1. Daytime heat will remain elevated with heat indices in the low 100s through Sunday. Stay hydrated, limit time outdoors during peak afternoon heat, and be mindful of signs of heat-related illness. 2. A pattern change in the medium range with a broad trough of low pressure possible in the eastern Gulf of Mexico during the latter half of the week. No tropical impacts are expected from this system over our area during the next 7 days. Another hot day in the books with highs topping out in the mid to upper 90s. BTR is at 97F thus far, 1 degree shy of their daily max set back in 1972. PQL reached 96F briefly, breaking their prior record of 94F set in 2022. Surface high pressure and mid-level ridging remain dominant over the area with only minimal fair weather cu noted over coastal LA, where moisture is slightly higher. Drier conditions today will fade as we`ve already started to see light southerlies return as the surface high scoots to the east. Onshore flow will allow dew points to rise again across the northern half of the CWA keeping overnight temps more elevated than last night. Advective properties coupled with radiational cooling will allow for some patchy fog development in lower lying areas primarily over the Atchafalaya and southwest MS around sunrise. Higher low-level moisture and subtle height falls should be sufficient for a bit more afternoon cu and a few pop up storms focused over the Atchafalaya and River Parishes on Sunday afternoon. This slightly more agitated cu field will not mitigate the heat too much aside from being in direct proximity to thunderstorms. However, this does appear to be the last very hot day for a little bit as temperatures return closer to normal into next week. Stay hydrated out there! (TJS)
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Monday through Friday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 The region will remain under northwesterly flow aloft as the large scale trough remains across the eastern US. A surface front will move closer and perhaps through the region Monday into Monday Night. The globals tend to remain somewhat dry with the feature so continued the low end or mentionable POPs for now since there is a nonzero potential. This trough begins to exit stage east going into the middle part of the week. Eyes shift upstream as an H5 shortwave begins to amplify and move toward our region by early Wednesday. This feature within the northwesterly flow could signal yet another MCS...we will wait and see, but the pattern at least is supportive. At the same time, globals have been signaling a very broad surface low (Central American Gyre) developing. This feature will help push deep low level tropical moisture northward, especially across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Globals are having a difficult time with this feature and the evolution. GFS has been the more bullish solution and attempts to develop a hybrid surface low. The issue here is the very broad low level pressure field is causing some resolution issues...so the GFS is latching onto convective feedback signals pretty easily and dropping a low under these features, which is not atypical for the GFS this time of year. The GEM and ECMWF show the moisture and at least an inverted surface trough. Similarly, the broad low level pressure field is also causing these globals issues as well at least in terms of where and when the trough develops and where it eventually ends up. For now, late week and into next weekend the overall confidence is low in terms of the actual forecast. Went with the consensus guidance through most of the long range for POPs. If the latest 08/12z guidance is anywhere near close to the eventual outcome, the best rainfall will be situated east of our forecast area. Regardless, we`ll have to keep monitoring this feature and the evolution as a few GEFS and EPS members do try to bring this weak trough/wave closer to our region next weekend. (Frye)
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&& .AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the day at all terminals. Light easterly winds becoming southerly thru afternoon and evening. Could see some patchy fog at MCB and BTR per guidance around sunrise but will clear quickly afterwards. Next TAF period could include VCTS line for HUM for pop up storms returning to forecast on Sunday afternoon. (TJS)
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&& .MARINE...
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Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A frontal system will slowly progress southeast through early next week that should stall offshore Wednesday bringing northerly winds to the area once again. All of these winds will be 5-10 knots or less, but locally higher winds and seas will be possible in and around convection. Otherwise, winds and seas look to increase a bit toward the end of the workweek as pressure gradient tightens across the the local waters and tidal lakes. (DS/TJS/FRYE)
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB 70 93 71 90 / 0 0 10 30 BTR 75 95 74 95 / 0 10 10 40 ASD 74 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 40 MSY 76 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 40 GPT 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 40 PQL 73 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 30
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&& .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....RDF AVIATION...TJS MARINE...DS/TJS/RDF