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FXUS64 KLIX 061449 AAB
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
949 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...NEW UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 945 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed across southeast
Louisiana and portions of the MS Gulf Coast ahead of an H5 impulse
moving across the region this morning. Behind the line, there
could be an isolated shower or storm this afternoon, but with most
of the upper support transitioning out of the region, continued to
advertise lower-end POPs respectively. Cloudiness this morning
will keep temps down just a bit, but some breaks in the cloudiness
this afternoon during peak heating will allow temps to warm into
the upper 80s and even perhaps lower 90s, especially across the
western tier. Overall, only superficial changes to the ongoing
forecast with focus on the ongoing convection. (Frye)
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

The front that has been talked about is arriving this morning. This
is more of a trough at the sfc than a front, but there is some
forcing just above the sfc with this and it should be capable of
developing and gathering most of its sh/ts along its axis as the
morning progresses. This boundary will press into the northern gulf
late today before stalling. This should deliver some light northerly
winds today bringing in some drier PW values. Model solutions are
almost a 180 from yesterday. Yesterdays 00z run had higher PW to the
south and west of this boundary with little to no precip in these
higher PW areas. This morning, the higher PW values are to the SE of
this boundary with lower PW values to the west and north and the
only thing that has remained is the precip field which is little to
none. Now that the PW field makes sense with the moisture depth, it
is easier to allow for much lower precip numbers and so that is what
this package will advertise. One more day of sh/ts around then some
drying out starting Fri. A few storms could be strong today, but
this may be more over the marine areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A stronger dry air surge moves in for Sat keeping precip numbers
to the some of the lowest numbers when related to the last several
weeks. A new cold front will enter the picture by Monday and move
rapidly toward the gulf coast stalling along the coast or
somewhere near it. This will bring another bout of sh/ts with it
either late Mon or Tue. At some point the easterlies will win out
as we press deeper into the summer and our rain chances will come
more from easterly waves, deep surges of tropical moisture, strong
coastal sea breezes or the other things.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR will be found at most terminals today outside of TSRA which
should impact several terminals and each have an equal chance at
getting a storm today. This activity will be pressed to the coast
later today bringing terminals to the north of the trough axis into
general VFR conditions. IFR cigs and vis could be found tonight
for MCB and BTR but the rest of the area should be in VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Southwesterly winds of 10-15kt will become light northerly tonight
into Fri. This will become a more variable wind Sat with a return
flow Sun ahead of the next front that should stall along the coast
or just offshore Mon possibly bringing northerly winds to the area
once again. All of these winds will be light outside of any storms
that are able to develop.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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MCB  88  69  91  65 /  20   0  10   0
BTR  92  73  96  71 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  91  72  95  70 /  80  10  10   0
MSY  90  77  94  76 /  80  10  10   0
GPT  88  73  94  71 /  80  10  10   0
PQL  89  71  95  68 /  90  20  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Update...RDF
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE