-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
457
FXUS64 KLIX 111805
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
105 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

It has been a quiet and slightly cooler night but with the front
just off the coast now we are still seeing light showers across
the SELA coast and in the Gulf. This is associated with the deeper
moisture that is still in place over that area however, drier air
is pushing in slowly from the north and that is likely going to
keep locations around southwest MS, adjacent LA parishes and even
coastal MS rain free today and through the week into the weekend.

Today is the one day with potential for something to develop as the
boundary is still just south of the coast and moisture is still
present. The mid lvl disturbance is still going to be back over the
southern Plains and what s/w ridging there is will move east of the
area early today. The light wind field should allow a seabreeze to
develop and that along with deep moisture in place along the SELa
coast will likely lead to scattered to widespread convection by
midday/early afternoon. Locations around Houma and Thibodaux could
see a few heavy downpours today with storm motion fairly slow and
mainly propagating based on outflow boundary motion and interaction.
along and north of I-10 rain chances quickly dissolve leading to a
mostly dry forecast. Highs should be a little cooler today thanks to
slightly lower LL temps. H925 temps may only range from 22-24C and
this should lead to highs only getting into the upper 80s to lower
90s. The one area that could see mid 90s again may be coastal Ms
where northerly sfc winds likely lead to some minor compressional
heating and highs possibly climbing to 93/94.

Tomorrow is a little interesting from a rain standpoint, only
because there is a small chance that we could see isolated to widely
scattered storms across a larger area. Moisture doesn`t appear to
get shunted far enough south yet with PWs abv 1.6 just north of I-12
still. In addition the weak disturbance that is currently moving
through the southern Plains will slowly work across the Lower MS
Valley. That will provide slightly cooler mid lvl temps (-8C at h5)
and perhaps be just enough to allow a few storms to develop along I-
10/12 unlike today where that will be far more difficult with the
disturbance farther upstream. That said Wednesday could also be a
degree or two warmer as the LL temps will already begin to rebound
some. The hotter weather will be on the way the rest of the week and
into the weekend. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Medium range models continue to be in fairly good agreement with
the pattern heading into the weekend. All suggest a rather hot
setup through Saturday. Then heading into Sunday and early next
week all show increasing rain potential and even the possibility
of widespread heavy rain. There are obviously some differences in
placement and amounts but the general idea is still there.

Thursday through Saturday the ridge will build in the from the west
and by Friday evening should be centered somewhere from the southern
Plains to the northern portions of the Lower MS Valley while the
axis extends well east off the GA/SC/FL coast. By Saturday the ridge
should be well entrenched across the southeastern CONUS. This will
cause hghts and LL temps to increase. H925 temps go from 23-25C
Thursday to 26 to 28 possibly 29C on Saturday. All guidance is
increasing the high temps into the mid to upper 90s and is is highly
possible to see a few 100s come Saturday if this holds up. This is
hot but luckily it looks like the LL moisture will still be lagging
just a tad and that will hopefully keep the rather oppressive
conditions mostly isolated.

Heading into Sunday and early next week is where things get more
murky. With the ridge sitting over the southeastern CONUS it is
really going to block any type of developed system from moving north
that said anything not really developed and just a wave along with
deep tropical moisture will not have as much of a problem lifting
north to northwest across the Gulf. There has been a number of runs
over the last few days trying to figure out where the deeper
tropical moisture will eventually ride and the latest trends over
the past 24+ hrs has been west. The key is where the western
periphery of the ridge sets up. Where ever that is will be key in
figuring out where the greatest potential for rain and likely heavy
rain impacts. Obviously this is 6 to 8 days out and getting into the
details is a waste of time at this juncture as things will change
multiple times over the next few days. That said the potential for
multiple days of rain possibly heavy at times is starting to
increase, so whatever yard/outdoor work you need to get done it
would probably behoove you to get it down by Saturday or early
Sunday. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

At issuance time, cumulus had started developing over the previous
hour, with convective echoes detected near a Thibodaux to
Boothville line. With movement to the west and southwest, this
should limit TSRA to the KHUM terminal area, although the threat
would be non-zero to KNEW and KMSY. Direct impacts, if they occur,
will produce MVFR ceilings and IFR or lower visibilities to KHUM.
Most likely, impacts would be one hour or less, and with the
eventual loss of surface heating, should see dissipation near or
prior to 00z Wednesday. Expect VFR conditions elsewhere through
the forecast period, and during the overnight hours at KHUM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 432 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Low level flow should become offshore today, and remain primarily
offshore until at least Friday. Convection should be the only
real concern over the next 48 hours or so, and that threat is
fairly limited. Once onshore flow commences over the weekend, we
may start building swell. Depending on which global solution
becomes preferred, at least some potential for higher than normal
tide levels. The relatively good news in that case is that
astronomical tide levels will be decreasing this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
MCB  89  65  90  64 /  10   0  10   0
BTR  94  71  94  71 /  20  10  10   0
ASD  93  71  93  71 /  20  10  20   0
MSY  92  77  91  77 /  30  20  30   0
GPT  92  71  93  72 /  10  10  10   0
PQL  95  68  95  69 /  10   0  10   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...CAB