-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
580
FXUS61 KLWX 081410
AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1010 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry through Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. A
slow moving trough approaches from the Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday leading to more unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 12Z IAD sounding showed dry air throughout the atmosphere
with RH of 24% in the mid levels. As seen on recent satellite
imagery, the large majority of the area is seeing sunny skies
with high level clouds moving into the southwestern portions of
the area and some fair weather cumulus moving along the
Alleghenies. High pressure will continue to build overhead today
with the previous forecast package remaining on track.

Previous Discussion:
High pressure will move to the south of the
area today. Dry conditions will continue with near normal
temperatures during the afternoon. Highs will reach the upper
70s to lower 80s. Lows tonight will be a bit milder with
temperatures in the lower to middle 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will slide across the area Sunday and bring a
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. The lack of moisture
should result in isolated to scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Highs Sunday will reach the lower to middle 80s with
70s mainly in the mountains. Dry conditions return Sunday night.
Lows middle to upper 50s.

A weak area of high pressure will build in behind the front on
Monday, but only to be shunted to the southeast with mid-level
disturbances dropping southeastward out of the Great Lakes midday
Monday and Monday afternoon. There could be a couple of showers and
a thunderstorm develop with this approaching river of disturbances.
Highs middle to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
In the wake of a longwave trough passage, the post-frontal
environment will be characterized by below normal temperatures and
low humidity levels. On Tuesday, forecast highs are likely to stay
in the mid/upper 70s, with 60s more commonplace across the higher
terrain. A steady northwesterly wind will maintain the multi-day
period of low humidity for early/mid-June standards. This should all
be underneath mostly sunny skies.

As the cold front further exits out into the Atlantic, a weak area
of high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. by mid-week. A few
showers and thunderstorms could fire up along the Allegheny Front on
Wednesday afternoon. However, ridging aloft should generally stunt
much convective development. Heading to latter portions of the work
week, a warm advection regime coupled with building heights will
support a marked warm up. Based on the latest ensemble output, some
90 degree readings are possible by Thursday into Friday. Looking
upstream, amplified flow begins to sweep across the Great Lakes on
Friday which will increase shower and thunderstorm chances. Ensemble
spaghetti plots show quite a bit of variability which suggests some
uncertainty in this forecast. A summertime air mass is likely around
to stay into next weekend before another cold front approaches from
the west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions today through Sunday morning. MVFR conditions briefly
possible in showers or a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
VFR conditions Sunday night through Monday night. Winds northwest 5
to 10 knots today, becoming light and variable tonight. Winds
southwest becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots Sunday through Monday
night.

Behind a cold front, expect VFR conditions on Tuesday
into Wednesday. Any mid-week shower and thunderstorm chances are
likely relegated to the higher terrain. Initial northwesterly
winds will give way to south-southwesterlies by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
No marine hazards expected today through Monday night. Winds
northwest 10 knots today and tonight, then southwest becoming
northwest 10 knots Sunday through Monday night. A few sporadic
gusts up to 20 knots are possible for a few hours this morning,
but winds are expected to diminish this afternoon.

Forecast winds stay below Small Craft Advisory levels through
Wednesday. Winds shift from northwesterly to south/southwesterly
during the period. Some channeling effects may take place late
Wednesday which carries gusts up to around 15 knots or so. The
forecast is dry through mid-week underneath a weak ridge.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels remain slightly elevated with a few locations pushing
into Action stage early this morning. This remains a theme through
the weekend although no sites are expected to push into any coastal
flood stages.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KLW
NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW
SHORT TERM...KLW
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KLW
MARINE...AVS/BRO/KLW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BRO