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474
FXUS64 KLZK 191950
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

A ridge of high pressure in the central and southern Plains will
build in our direction during the near term. Under the ridge,
summer temperatures are expected, with above average readings in
the forecast the next couple of days. Conditions will remain
mostly dry.

As the ridge becomes dominant, large scale troughing will be
noted over the western United States. On the leading edge of the
troughing, a cold front will try to push toward Arkansas from the
northwest tonight/Friday, but will not make it into the state.
Even so, a stray shower or thunderstorm could affect
northern/western sections of the state ahead of the front.

On the heels of the front, yet another cold front will head this
way as the period ends. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may pop
up north of Little Rock on Saturday.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

With H500 ridging to the southwest extending northeast over the
state and sfc ridging in place just to the SE, another hot day is
expected on Sunday. Highs in the lower to mid 90s F appear likely
across parts of the state before the mid-level ridge is forced
southward as a trough moves across the middle of the country.

As the mid-level trough continues to shift east of the area, at the
sfc a cold front will push into the state. While dry conditions will
likely hold out for much of the state on Sunday, some rain chances
will move into the area early next week. Temperatures will be a bit
closer to normal behind the front as well.

Near the end of the period it`s possible that a second H500 trough
could move across the middle of the country with another cold front
set to move through at the sfc. While this could provide additional
cooler air to the state, available 12z model data provides lower
confidence regarding the pattern by late next week.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Friday morning. Scattered
cumulus at 5000 to 6000 feet will be noted this afternoon,
especially in southern/western Arkansas. The sky will clear tonight,
and any fog/brief MVFR conditions early Friday morning will be very
spotty. The wind will be light/variable this afternoon and tonight,
and south/southwest at 4 to 8 mph Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     68  90  71  92 /   0  10  10  20
Camden AR         68  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       69  94  71  90 /  10  20  20  30
Hot Springs AR    69  97  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  71  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     69  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      67  96  70  96 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  69  93  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
Newport AR        67  90  71  90 /   0   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     68  94  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   69  96  72  95 /   0   0  10  10
Searcy AR         67  93  71  94 /   0   0  10  10
Stuttgart AR      68  93  72  93 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...46