Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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470 FXUS64 KLZK 240820 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 320 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Tuesday Night) Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The upper level ridge is centered over Texas and affecting the central and western parts of the country. An upper trough will move through the northeast U.S. today and tonight. The southern ridge will expand into the Rockies Tuesday. The heat and humidity will continue today and Tuesday. Dew points will be in the 70s both days. A Heat Advisory is in effect for today through Tuesday with heat indices over 105 degrees. A short wave will move through the area Tuesday afternoon and night with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs today and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees. Lows will be in the 70s tonight and Tuesday night.
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Not many value added changes will be forth coming this morning as guidance continues to show a continuation of very hot conditions or in other words, summer is here and appears to be locked in through the majority of the period. Period initiates with upper ridging over the Continental Divide which in turn places a broad northwest flow aloft over the state. Upper level impulse will be moving through early Wednesday bringing widespread precipitation chances to the forecast area. Associated cloud cover with these rain chances will knock down temperatures a few degrees on Wednesday. Come Wednesday night and into Thursday, surface high pressure passing through the upper midwest/Great Lakes will drive a weak cold front through the state with a brief return of northerly winds. High temperatures Thursday will be the coolest of the extended period but will still top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s along with somewhat cooler dew points, especially across the north. By Friday, the upper ridge that was centered over the Continental Divide early in the period will be moving to east and building over the south central and southeast United States. This will bring a return to the very hot and humid conditions with widespread triple digit heat index values. Guidance continues to show a strong anti- cyclone moving into the upper midwest late in the period. This in turn will drive another cold front toward the state with some rain chances over the weekend. ECMWF is a little more aggressive with rain vs the GFS but plenty of time remains to sort out the finer details.
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&& .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 High pressure continues over the southern U.S. Hot and humid conditiions will continue. VFR conditions are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 10 20 Camden AR 100 76 98 76 / 0 10 10 10 Harrison AR 96 74 95 72 / 0 0 20 30 Hot Springs AR 100 76 99 76 / 10 0 10 10 Little Rock AR 100 79 99 79 / 0 0 10 20 Monticello AR 99 77 98 77 / 10 0 10 10 Mount Ida AR 98 75 97 74 / 0 0 20 10 Mountain Home AR 97 74 96 73 / 0 0 20 30 Newport AR 98 75 99 77 / 0 0 10 20 Pine Bluff AR 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 10 Russellville AR 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 20 Searcy AR 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 20 Stuttgart AR 97 78 98 78 / 0 0 10 20
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&& .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ004>008- 014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113- 121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240- 241-313-340-341.
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&& $$ SHORT TERM...51 LONG TERM....56 AVIATION...51