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365
FXUS64 KLZK 222235 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
535 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

The ridge of high pressure across the southern to northeastern CONUS
is breaking down, as an upper trough, surface Low pressure and cold
front move across the south-central and Midwestern states. These
features will continue to develop cloud cover, rain showers and
thunderstorms across portions of the CWA through the next couple of
days. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. Their main
threats will be strong wind gusts, hail, with potential for heavy
rain and localized flooding.

The showers and storms will begin across northern AR Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night, spreading across western and central
portions of the state by Monday morning. Coverage will expand to
cover much of the forecast area by Monday evening and will be
confined mainly to southern and eastern portions of the state by
Tuesday.

Temperatures remain well above normal Sunday, with highs reaching
the upper 80s to the mid 90s. As the system progresses eastward,
temperatures will start to drop. By Monday afternoon, highs
across west and north Arkansas will be in the lower to upper 70s,
but in the upper 80s to lower 90s across central, southern and
eastern AR. By Tuesday afternoon, highs will be in the 70s-80s
across much of the state.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

At the start of the period a fairly robust H500 cyclone will be
making progress southward toward the state from the Central
Plains/Mid-MS Valley. This feature will be surrounded by ridges in
place across the western US and along the Gulf Coast/Southeast US.

This feature will settle in over the state for the mid to late week
timeframe and will become cutoff from the main flow. While this
feature rotates its way around the vicinity of the state, sfc
ridging will be in place just to the north with the remnant cold
front to the south. This setup will provide persistent cloud cover,
occasional rain chances and below normal temperatures across
Arkansas.

Things become more uncertain by late week into next weekend as what
could become Helene moves toward the eastern Gulf Coast. Continued
flanking by mid-level ridges could lead to some mutual interaction
between these features across the region. Confidence remains low at
this time, but if these two features were to interact as depicted by
available 12z model data, there could be an axis of heavy rainfall
in close proximity to the resulting cyclone. Additionally, below
normal temperatures would certainly persist as long as the H500 low
remains nearby.

&&

.AVIATION...
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(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Some scattered convection will remain possible across NRN
terminals this evening...becoming less likely later tonight. Even
so...some convection will still be possible overnight into midday
Mon. Further south...convection will hold off until the afternoon
hrs on Mon. Some low CIGs could also be seen across the NRN
terminals.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     69  82  66  79 /  30  60  70  20
Camden AR         69  90  68  84 /   0  30  30  30
Harrison AR       67  73  60  74 /  60  80  40  20
Hot Springs AR    71  87  65  83 /  10  60  40  20
Little Rock   AR  73  88  69  83 /  10  40  60  20
Monticello AR     71  91  71  85 /   0  10  30  40
Mount Ida AR      70  84  61  83 /  20  70  30  20
Mountain Home AR  68  75  62  76 /  60  80  60  20
Newport AR        70  83  67  79 /  20  50  70  20
Pine Bluff AR     71  90  69  83 /   0  20  50  30
Russellville AR   71  82  64  81 /  30  70  40  10
Searcy AR         70  86  67  81 /  10  40  70  20
Stuttgart AR      71  89  69  82 /   0  20  60  30
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...62