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063
FXUS64 KLZK 180742
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
242 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Currently, as of 2 AM CDT, portions of the Natural State are dealing
with patches of dense fog again this morning; however, the fog is
not as widespread or dense as yesterday morning.

Fog will dissipate by late Wednesday morning and make way to mostly
sunny skies and dry weather across the CWA and entire state of
Arkansas. This theme of fair weather conditions with mostly sunny
skies and no rain chances will continue into Thursday as well.

The reason for this is upper lvl ridging that will persist over
Arkansas working in unison with a localized area of sfc high
pressure that will remain in close proximity to the region.

Temperatures in response to this setup will be 5 to 10 degrees above
average with respect to both low and high temperatures. High
temperatures will range from the mid 80s to low 90s statewide on
Wednesday afternoon and inch upward on Thursday afternoon as the
pattern mentioned above remains in place with highs peaking in the
upper 80s to mid 90s.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Guidance has been consistent in showing a rather amplified pattern
in place when the period begins with the upper flow featuring deep
troughing along both coasts and expansive ridging over the nations
mid section. Model guidance remains in decent enough agreement this
morning that whatever differences that do exist will just be blended.

Upper ridging will dominate on Friday and for the majority of
Saturday with some precip possible over the far NW corner of the CWA
as moisture rotates around the ridge. Western CONUS upper low will
pivot NE from central CA into the central plains by early Monday. As
the system approaches, the ridge will be pushed to the east somewhat
but hold on enough to keep precipitation chances confined to the
northern part of the CWA with minimal chances elsewhere.

Low will continue its NE trek moving into the western Great lakes
region by Tuesday morning and dragging a cold front upwards the
state. Front is not overly impressive and forecast to stall out or
wash out during the day. Another front is then expected to approach
the area at the conclusion of the period which the models are really
not sure to do with at this point.

Temperatures are expected to average above climatological average
for this time of the year Friday through Sunday. Increased cloud
cover and precipitation chances will knock them down somewhat across
northern and to a lesser extent central sections Monday and
beyond.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Latest observations are showing patchy fog already beginning to
impact western and southern terminals across the state as of 12 AM
CDT Wednesday, thus dropping flight category to MVFR with isolated
moments of IFR in respect to VSBY. The trend of VSBY lowering
throughout the early morning hours of Wednesday will continue
dropping flight category at western and southern sites to as low as
IFR flight category. The northern and central terminals may see some
patchy fog resulting a decline to MVFR flight category. However,
flight category at all terminals will return to VFR by later
Wednesday morning as the fog dissipates and remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Batesville AR     87  62  88  67 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         91  66  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       87  63  90  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    92  66  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  90  67  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     91  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      90  64  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  87  62  90  67 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        86  62  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     89  64  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   90  65  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         88  62  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      88  63  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
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&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...74