-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
425
FXUS64 KLZK 252347
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
647 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Hazardous heat remains in place acrs the FA this aftn, w/ most
locations seeing temps in excess of 95F, and heat index values of
105F to 110F or greater. An expansive diurnal Cu field was noted on
recent vis sat imgry, w/ some agitated Cu developing into isolated
showers/storms acrs Nrn AR. Expect incrsg covg of isolated precip
thru the remainder of the aftn and evng hrs, w/ greatest chc PoPs
over Nrn AR, and portions of Srn Cntrl to S/Ern AR.

Heading into Wed, precip chcs are expected to incrs fm Nrn AR to Srn
AR thru the day, as an apparent overnight MCS is progged to move in
tandem w/ a small H500 shortwave/vort max Swrd thru the mid-MS River
Valley. Most CAM guidance is still exhibiting a high spread on
timing, and location of this feature, though a mean track of precip
seems to suggest the convective complex should move thru at least
portions of Nrn, to N/Ern, and Ern AR sometime Wed mrng to aftn.

A number of factors wl play into potential heat risk on Wed, w/ an
MCS expected to move thru portions of the FA, residual outflow
boundaries, low-lvl Nrly steering flow, and asctd cloud cover would
lkly keep area temperatures and heat index values subdued below
advisory levels. Lower confidence currently lies acrs S/Wrn to Srn
AR, where the impacts of precip and aforementioned factors may be
less significant. For now, have opted to withhold issuing an advisory
for Wed due to high uncertainty, but condns and future trends may
warrant another advisory for at least, portions of Srn AR tomorrow
aftn. Temps on Wed should trend back to near-normal values, w/ area
readings in the upper 80s over Nrn AR to low 90s elsewhere.

In the wake of the passing MCS, an asctd cdfrnt is expected to
filter into the FA, lkly washing out over the Cntrl portion of the
state, leaving behind weak N/Erly sfc flow. Temps wl lkly not be
impacted much, w/ area readings staying near normal values, and
dewpoints tapering down slightly, mostly acrs Nrn and N/Ern AR. Some
precip chances wl linger acrs the S/E thru the day Thurs, but
otherwise, dry and settled condns are expected amidst the brief mid-
week cooldown.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

We will be marching back up to unseasonably mild temperatures by
Thursday as the upper level ridge shifts from Texas to back over the
midsouth by the end of the week. There still appears to be a weak
front expected to drop into North Arkansas by late Saturday. This
will provide cloud cover and an opportunity for showers beginning in
North Arkansas late Saturday and spreading into Central Arkansas by
Sunday before washing out over southern Arkansas on Sunday night.
Models aren`t indicating more than a quarter to half an inch of rain
for the entire forecast area. By Monday into Tuesday, a strong upper
ridge will build and the extreme heat will return with even hotter
temps forecasted than what we experienced this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conds are expected this evening/overnight with lingering
VCSH/VCTS this afternoon over Nrn and Srn terminals. PoPs will
decrease overnight with winds becoming light and variable. On
Wed, a line of SHRA/TSRA is expected to dive S through the morning
hours, affecting most sites into the afternoon. MVFR conds may
accompany the convection. Winds should shift to the N, then W/NW
through the afternoon. Winds may gust upwards of 20 kts near TSRA,
otherwise, winds should be around 10 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     76  90  70  90 /  10  70  20  10
Camden AR         76  93  71  93 /  10  60  30  10
Harrison AR       72  90  68  88 /  20  70  10  10
Hot Springs AR    75  93  71  93 /   0  50  30  10
Little Rock   AR  78  92  74  92 /  10  70  30  10
Monticello AR     78  92  73  92 /  10  60  40  20
Mount Ida AR      73  92  70  92 /   0  50  30  10
Mountain Home AR  73  89  69  88 /  30  70  10  10
Newport AR        77  93  72  90 /  20  60  20   0
Pine Bluff AR     76  93  72  91 /  30  50  30  10
Russellville AR   75  92  73  92 /  10  70  20  10
Searcy AR         75  91  72  91 /  10  70  20  10
Stuttgart AR      78  91  73  90 /  20  70  30  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ004>006-014-015-
024-031-032-039-042>045-052>056-062>064-066>068-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.

Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ007-
008-016-017-025-033-034-046-047-057-065-069.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...70