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041
FXUS64 KLZK 131025 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
525 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Another quiet cool dry night is ongoing across the Natural State
early this Thu...with a  mostly clear sky and light winds ongoing
with SFC high pressure over the state. Temps have dropped into the
60s for most areas...with some upper 50s also noted.  The SFC high
pressure will start sliding east by this afternoon...with some SRLY
flow returning for portions of the NWRN third of the area. Moisture
levels will gradually start increasing as a result...but most areas
will still see dewpts in the 60s...though some 50s may remain across
the SERN sections in closer proximity to the SFC high. Temps will
warm into the mid 80s to low 90s.

Moisture levels will increase further for Fri...with dewpts
increasing back to the low 70s across NRN AR. Further south...dewpts
will remain in the 60s. A cold front will approach from the north
Fri afternoon...with some increased POPs forecast for the increased
potential for convection along/south of the front. Best POPs for Fri
afternoon into Fri evening will be across far NRN AR...but some
convection may be seen further south. Otherwise...most of the SRN
half of the state should remain dry into Fri evening. Have only
added slight chance to low end chance POPs across the north as a
result of upper level ridging...but the front should provide just
enough forcing for at least a few storms. If storms were to
develop...very plentiful forecast CAPE could result in a strong to
SVR storm or two. SHR will be lacking however...so pulse type
convection will be the primary storm mode. Any convection that does
develop will likely dissipate late Fri evening.

Highs on Fri will warm into the upper 80s to upper 90s. With
increasing moisture levels...heat index values will also be
approaching the 100 deg mark for several locations. However...this
heat looks to persist into the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The period will begin with a ridge of high pressure over the region.
There may be a stalled front in northeast Arkansas Saturday morning,
and an outside chance of a thunderstorm. Otherwise, mostly dry and
hot conditions are in the forecast this weekend, with above to well
above average temperatures expected.

Afternoon heat index values may touch 100 degrees in parts of
southern, central, and eastern Arkansas on Saturday. Maximum heat
indices from 100 to 105 degrees will be experienced in the same
parts of the state on Sunday, which is getting close to but not
quite Heat Advisory criteria.

Early next week, the ridge will wobble to the east, and will affect
areas from the Ohio Valley to the southeast United States. On the
back side of the high, moisture will increase a bit, and this may
lead to isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms Monday
through Wednesday. The pattern looks very much like summer, with
randomly developing diurnal convection occurring. Temperatures will
be slightly cooler than the weekend, but still above average.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Expect the VFR conditions to persist through this TAF period.
Winds will remain less than 10 kts sustained.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     89  67  93  71 /   0   0  10  20
Camden AR         91  64  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       90  66  90  69 /   0   0  20  20
Hot Springs AR    91  66  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  92  69  96  73 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     90  66  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      91  65  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  91  66  90  69 /   0   0  20  20
Newport AR        89  68  93  73 /   0   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     90  66  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   92  68  96  70 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         90  66  93  71 /   0   0   0  20
Stuttgart AR      89  68  93  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...62