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362
FXUS64 KLZK 191707 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

To begin the period, high pressure...currently centered just east of
the state, will gradually move back over the area through the
period. Some light rain showers are possible today as tropical
moisture continues to move over the state...aided by the system in
the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rain is not expected and any location that
receives rain will likely see less than a tenth of an inch. Dry
conditions are expected by the end of the period as hotter
temperatures begin to move back into the area.

The coolest day in the short term period will be today as surface
high pressure gradually moves back towards the west increasing
temperatures by Thursday. High temperatures are expected to be in
the mid 80s to lower 90s early before increasing into the upper 80s
to mid 90s by Thursday. Overnight low temperatures are expected to
drop into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The period will begin with a large ridge of high pressure over
Arkansas. Under the ridge, temperatures will be above to well above
average, and conditions will be largely dry.

Temperatures will peak in the 90s on Friday, and from the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees during the weekend. Given dewpoints in the
lower/mid 60s Friday/Saturday, afternoon heat index values will have
difficulty reaching the century mark. However, moisture levels will
increase a bit on Sunday, with heat indices peaking from 100 to 105
degrees in much of the state except the Ozark Mountains.

Early next week, the ridge will wobble toward the southern
Plains/southern Rockies. We will be under the the eastern periphery
of the ridge, with clockwise flow creating a weak northwest flow
aloft. A cold front will drift toward Arkansas from the mid-
Mississippi Valley/central Plains, and humidity levels will tick a
bit higher Monday/Tuesday. While triple digit temperatures will be
more spotty, oppressive conditions are expected as heat indices max
out between 100 and 110 degrees. There will also be isolated to
scattered afternoon/early evening thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. A few showers are
possible, but coverage should remain limited. Winds will vary from
E-S at times, at less than 10 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Batesville AR     69  91  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         71  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       67  88  67  90 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    71  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  73  94  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     71  93  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      70  92  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  68  90  69  92 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        70  92  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     71  92  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   72  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         69  92  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      72  92  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...73
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...67