Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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942 FXUS64 KLZK 261144 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 644 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Skies were mostly clear across AR this morning with temperatures holding in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Today, ample sunshine is expected and temperatures should climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s on N/NErly winds. Winds could gust to 15-20 mph this afternoon at times. Synoptically, a potent upper closed-low/trough was positioned over the the Mid-MS Valley Region with upper ridges over the Srn Plains stretching Nwrd into the Cntrl Plains and off the E coast, respectively. Moving ahead through tonight, the aforementioned closed-low will move Swrd, becoming momentarily stationary near TN/MS/AL borders. At the same time, Helene will move Nwrd coming ashore near sunset or shortly thereafter across the Big Bend of FL, and rotate about an axis centered between Helene and the upper closed-low. On Friday, the remnants of Helene will merge with the closed-low providing additional moisture to the closed-low/trough. The closed-low will then begin to drift Nwrd towards the OH Valley. AR should stay in upper NW flow the entire time, which will serve to bring drier air into the W side of the system and slightly lower expected QPF amounts across the CWA. Across AR, clouds will build into the region Thursday night from the NE. Showers will increase in coverage early Friday across NE AR, before spreading SW through the late morning into the overnight period. The heaviest rain is anticipated to remain over NErn sections of the state, where a couple to few inches of QPF is possible. Lower amounts are expected over S/SW/and W AR where totals should be limited to a couple tenths of an inch at best. There will likely be a pronounced cutoff on the S and W side of the precipitation shield delineating a couple tenths of an inch from amounts near or greater than one inch. Breezy N/NWrly winds around 15-20 mph are expected with gusts frequently between 20-30 mph. Higher wind gusts are possible over the Delta Region of NE AR. Rainfall will start to wind down early Saturday morning as the entire system begins to pulls away. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The extended period will begin with a merged storm system aloft and remnants of Hurricane Helene over the Tennessee Valley. This feature will have nowhere to go given ridges of high pressure in the southern Rockies and just off the mid Atlantic Coast. Isolated to scattered showers remain in the forecast over northern and eastern Arkansas on Saturday along with a breezy northwest wind. Gusts could exceed 20 mph in parts of the north/east. A few showers may still be around in the northeast on Sunday, but with less wind. Otherwise, dry conditions are in the forecast this weekend farther south/west. Heading into next week, the ridge in the Rockies will try to build in our direction. A gradual warming trend will occur Monday/Tuesday, and there is no rain expected. Toward the middle of the week, a broad northwest flow aloft will take over ahead of the ridge, and this will drive a cold front through Arkansas from the Plains. For now, it looks like a dry frontal passage, followed by slightly cooler air. As far as temperatures, seasonal temperatures at the beginning of the long term will quickly become above seasonal late in the weekend/early next week. Readings will return to normal levels as the period comes to a close. && .AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conds are expected through the TAF period with winds becoming N/NE around 10 kts today, gusting to near 20 kts during the afternoon over Cntrl/Ern terminals. Scattered day Cu is expected with high clouds building in from the NE overnight across Nrn sites.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 79 61 69 61 / 10 60 80 60 Camden AR 82 60 77 61 / 0 10 50 30 Harrison AR 77 57 69 60 / 0 30 60 40 Hot Springs AR 82 61 77 64 / 0 10 60 30 Little Rock AR 82 64 72 64 / 0 40 70 50 Monticello AR 82 62 75 63 / 0 10 70 40 Mount Ida AR 82 57 77 61 / 0 10 50 20 Mountain Home AR 78 59 70 61 / 0 50 70 50 Newport AR 79 62 68 61 / 10 70 90 70 Pine Bluff AR 81 62 73 62 / 0 30 70 50 Russellville AR 82 60 75 63 / 0 20 60 40 Searcy AR 80 61 71 61 / 0 60 80 60 Stuttgart AR 80 62 70 63 / 0 40 80 60 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....46 AVIATION...70